Muhammad Jibran Shahzad Zuberi, Murat Fahrioğlu

Application of Hubbert Peak Theory to Stimulate Biogas Production

Assessing the amount of fossil fuels remained in the subsurface, specifically oil and gas has been debated extensively since the introduction of Hubbert Peak Theory in 1956. The economic model of Pakistan relies greatly on natural gas. Thus, estimating the volume of natural gas recoverable in the future becomes critical for the development of the country. The main objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of Hubbert Peak Theory in order to determine the ultimate gas recovery under a pessimistic scenario assuming that no further reserves will be discovered in the future. This is useful information because reaching the peak will have implications for Pakistan. Data analysis suggests that Pakistan will most probably peak in natural gas production in 2016 and decline afterwards. Year 2055 is perhaps the point around which the production will approach zero. The results are so alarming that if no major initiative is taken by the government to address the issue then Pakistan’s economy will have to face dire consequences. Biogas can serve as a viable alternative to meet the hiking demand of gas, utilizing its own widely available resources. Livestock, bagasse and waste landfills are capable of producing 415.3 million Bcf of biogas annually which if produced today, can substitute 22.5% of the total energy originated from natural gas supplied in the fiscal year 2012-13. The outcomes of this paper might also be applicable to other developing countries having similar resources.

Keywords:

Hubbert Peak Theory, Ultimate Recovery, Natural Gas Biogas, Pakistan.,

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