Estimating the Demand for Diesel in Agriculture Sector of Iran

Estimating the Demand for Diesel in Agriculture Sector of Iran

This paper estimates per capita demand for diesel by agricultural sector in Iran using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method over 1973-2012. The findings indicate that the demand for diesel is relatively inelastic in response to changes in its price, electricity acts as substitute input for diesel, diesel is a necessary input in agriculture, and mechanization index, despite having expected positive sign, fails to explain variations in diesel use. In addition, there is a long-run relationship among variables. According to Error Correction Model, the speed of adjustment in short-run distortions towards long-run equilibrium is moderate. The findings show that government policy on cutting energy subsidies is not enough for reducing diesel consumption in Iranian agricultural sector. Thus, non-price measures such as innovations in inter-fuel substitution technologies and applying efficient machineries are recommended to manage energy uses in agriculture.