Edi CAHYONO, Buyung SARİTA, Pasrun ADAM, Femy Puspita ARİSANTİ

THE TREND AND DYNAMICS DISTRIBUTION OF THE JAKARTA STOCK EXCHANGE (JSX) COMPOSITE

In this paper we discuss the dynamics of the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) Composite. The dynamics indicates performance indicator of several industries in Indonesia. The data is presented as time series. To predict the dynamics from the data, however, is still difficult. In general, it is almost impossible to predict such dynamics for the case of high frequency data. Hence, we do not predict the dynamics. Rather, we seek the trend and the probability density function (pdf). For a ‘small’ period of time, the pdf is based on the assumption that the dynamics is normally distributed. Mathematically speaking, this is a time averaging of data, and in some cases the data is presented in the form of candle sticks. The trend will be approximated by a higher order polynomial function which is sought by applying a least square methods. On the other hand, the probability density function of the data within each candle stick is obtained by computing standard deviation of the data with respect to the trend in the candle stick.

Keywords:

Jakarta Stock Exchange, JSX Composite, Dynamics, Trend Curve,

PDF

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