Filiz YILDIZ CONTUK, Hümeyra BURUCU, Bener GÜNGÖR

EFFECT OF GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ON STOCK RETURNS: EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

This study analyzes the effect of fluctuations in gold prices on ISE 100 index using daily prices and the index data from 01.01.2009 to 31.12.2012. The raw data has been converted into earnings yields and analyzed. The study first determines whether or not the use of a GARCH model would be appropriate using a heteroskedasticity test. The test results show that there was an ARCH effect in both variables, and that GARCH modeling could be used. The results obtained from MGARCH modeling show that gold and stock exchange yields have been affected both by their own shocks and by shocks of each other.

Keywords:

Gold Prices, Stock Returns, GARCH modeling,

PDF

___

Aksoy, M.; Topcu, N., (2013) “Altın ile Hisse Senedi ve Enflasyon Arasındaki
İlişki” , Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt:27,Sayı(1), 59- Baillie, R.T. and Myers, R.J.(1991) “Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal
Commodity Futures Hedge,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6, 109-124. Balı,Selçuk; Cinel M.Ozan, (2011), “Altın Fiyatlarının İMKB 100 Endeksi’ne
Etkisi Ve Bu Etkinin Ölçümlenmesi”, “Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi”, Cilt: 25, Sayı: 3-4 ,45-63
Baur, Dirk G., (2009), “The Volatility of Gold” ,School of Finance and Economics University of Technology, Sydney.
Bera, A. K., and Higgins, M. L. (1993), “ARCH Models: Properties,Estimation and Testing,”Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 7, No. 4,307-366.
Bhunia, Amalendu; Das, Amit, (2012), “Assocıatıon Between Gold Prıces And Stock Market Returns:Empırıcal Evıdence From Nse” , Journal of Exclusive
Management Science,Vol 1 Issue 2 - ISSN 2277 – 5684
Bollerslev, T. (1990), “Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange
Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 498-505. Bollerslev, T., R.Y. Chou, and K.F. Kroner (1992), "ARCH Modeling in
Finance:A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Econometrics,Vol.52, p.5-59
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lilian, K.Ng ,(1998), “International Evidence on the Stock
Market and Aggregate Duyar, M. (2010),”Altın Arzını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Oluşan Fiyatlar Üzerindeki
Etkisi” ,Journal Of International Social Research, Volume(3)-Issue(14), 214-225. Economic Activity”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 5, 281-296
Engle, R.F. and K.F. Kroner (1995), “Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized
ARCH”, Econometric Theory, 11, 122-150. Fama, Eugene F.,(1981), “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money”,
The American Economic Review ,Vol. 71, No. 4,pp. 545-565
Ghosh, D., Levın, E.J., Macmıllan, P., Wrıght, R.E., (2002), “Gold as an inflation hedge?”, University of St. Andrews, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper Series.
Gökdemir L.; S. Ergün, (2007) “Altın Fiyatlarındaki İstikrarsızlığın Altın Ticareti
Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, E-Journal of Yaşar University, 27-40, No.5, Vol.1 Gong, Fangxiong ; Mariano, Roberto S., (1997), “Stock Market Returns And Economic Fundamentals In An Emerging Market: The Case of Korea”, Financial
Engineering and the Japanese Markets, 4(2), 147-169
Gourieroux, C. (1997), “ARCH Models and Financial Applications”, New York:Springer
Gwilym, Owain ap; Clare, Andrew; Seaton, James; Thomas, Stephen; (2011) ,
“Gold Stocks, The Gold Price And Market Timing”, “Journal of Derivatives & Hedge Funds” , Vol. 17 Issue 3, p.266. Kaliyamoorthy,S. ;Parithi, S., (2012), “ Relationship of Gold Market and Stock
Market: An Analysis”, International Journal of Business and Management Tomorrow, Vol. 2 No. 6 Karolyi G. A. (1995), “A multivariate GARCH model of international transmissions of stock returns and volatility: The case of United States and Canada. American Statistical Association, 13, 11-25.
Kaya, Vahdet; Çömlekçi, İstemi, Kara, Oğuz, (2013), “Hisse Senedi Getirilerini
Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler 2002-2012 Türkiye Örneği”, Dumlupınar
Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi – Sayı 35. Korkmaz,T.;Ceylan,A.,(2010) "Sermaye Piyasası ve Menkul Değer Analizi", Ekin Yayınevi,Bursa,s:95.
Koutsoyıannıs, A. (1983), “A Short-Run Pricing Model for a Speculative Asset,
Tested with Data From the Gold Bullion Market”, Applied Economics, 15, 563- Kroner, K.F. and Claessens, S. (1991), “Optimal Dynamic Hedging Portfolios and the Currency Composition of External Debt,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 10, 131-148
Mulyadi, Martin Surya; Anwar, Yunita, (2012), “Gold versus stock investment:
An econometric analysis”, “International Journal of Development and Sustainability Online”, Volume 1, Number 1, Page 1-7. Omağ,A., (2012), “An Observation Of The Relationship Between Gold Prices
And Selected Financial Variables In Turkey”, Journal of Accounting & Finance, (55), 195-204. P K Mishra; J R Das & S K Mishra ,(2010), “Gold Price Volatility and Stock
Market Returns in India”, American Journal of Scientific Research ISSN 1450- X Issue 9”, pp.47-55
Poyraz, E.; Didin, S., (2008), “Altın Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Döviz Kuru, Döviz
Rezervi Ve Petrol Fiyatlarından Etkilenme Derecelerinin Çoklu Faktör Modeli İle Değerlendirilmesi”, Suleyman Demirel University Journal Of Faculty Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 13(2), 93-104. Smith, Graham,(2001); “The price of gold and stock price Indıces for the United
States”,http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/Gold&USStockIndicesD EC200120fina.pdf-15.01.2013
Smith,Graham (2002),“London Gold Prices and Stock Price Indices in Europe and Japan”,http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/GOLD&EUJPStockIndic esFeb2002.pdf-15.01.2013
Topçu, Ayhan, (2010), “Altın Fiyatlarını Etkileyen Faktörler”, SPK Araştırma Raporu, Ankara
Toraman,C.; Başarir, Ç.; Bayramoğlu, M., (2011), “ Determination of Factors
Affecting the Price of Gold: A Study of MGARCH Model”, Business and Economics Research Journal, ISSN:1309-2448,Volume(2),Number(4),pp.37-50
Toraman,C.; Başarir, Ç.; Bayramoğlu, M., (2011), “Altın Fiyatlarını Etkileyen
Faktörlerin Tespiti Üzerine: Mgarch Modeli İle Bir İnceleme”, Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1):1-20
Tully, E.; Lucey, B. M. ,(2005) ,“An APGARCH Investigation of the Main
Influences on the Gold Price”. available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=79 Vural; M.Göknil, (2003), “Altın Piyasası ve Altın Fiyatlarını Etkileyen
Faktörler”,TCMB Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara Yılmaz, Ömer; Güngör, Bener; Kaya, Vedat; (2007), “Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Makro Ekonomi Değiskenler Arasında Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik” , İMKB
Dergisi, Cilt:9, Sayı: 34, Aralık, Zügül, Muhittin; Şahin, Cumhur; (2009), “İMKB 100 Endeksi İle Bazı
Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkiyi İncelemeye Yönelik Bir Uygulama”, Akademik Bakış, Sayı 16, Nisan http://www.uzmantv.com/altin-almakla-altin-borsasinda-islem-yapmak-arasinda- ne-fark-var- Erişim tarihi:17.01.2013 http://www.iab.gov.tr/docs/iab.pdf- Erişim tarihi: 17.01.2013 http://www.iab.gov.tr/docs/aylikraporu.pdf- Erişim tarihi :20.01.2013 www.gold.org- Erişim tarihi:20.01.2013