Fatih TOSUNOĞLU, Muhammet Nuri İSPİRLİ, Faruk GÜRBÜZ, Selim ŞENGÜL

Fırat Havzası’ndaki Eksik Akım Verilerinin Debi Süreklilik Çizgileri ve Regresyon Modelleri ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Herhangi bir bölgedeki su yapılarının tasarımı, planlanması ve işletilmesinde akım verileri oldukça

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Fırat Havzası, debi süreklilik çizgileri, eksik akım verileri, regresyon modelleri

Estimation of Missing Streamflow Records in the Euphrates Basin using Flow Duration Curves and Regression Models

Streamflow records play important role for design, planning and management of water structuresin any region. In order to use the streamflow efficiently for these purposes, the length of data records must bestatistically sufficient and complete. But, there are usually some gaps at the streamflow records and these gaps mustbe infilled by means of reliable methods. In this study, the missing streamflow records in the gauge stations 2119,2151, 2149, 2158 and 2122, which are located in the upper and middle parts of the Euphrates Basin, were estimatedusing Flow Duration Curves and Regression Models. To define the best model among alternatives, determinationcoefficient (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used. According to the results, both of the modelsproduced successful results with a high value of R2. Moreover, the results showed that the Regression Modelsfor the stations 2151, 2119, 2122 and 2158 and Flow Duration Curves for the station 2149 were more capable topreserve the main statistical properties of the historical data.

Keywords:

Euphrates Basin, flow duration curves, missing streamflows, regression model,

PDF

___

Bakış R, Göncü S, 2015. Akarsu Debi Ölçümlerinde Eksik Verilerin Tamamlanması: Zap Suyu Havzası Örneği, Anadolu Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi A-Uygulamalı Bilimler ve Mühendislik, 16(1):63-79
Bayazıt M, Önöz B, 2008. Taşkın ve Kuraklık Hidrolojisi, İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Nobel Akademik yayıncılık.
Bayazıt M, 1981. Hidrolojide İstatistik Yöntemler, İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Matbaası.
Burgess TM, Webster R, 1980. Optimal Interpolation and Isarithmic Mapping of Soil Properties I, the Semivariogram and Punctual Kriging. Journal of Soil Science, 31(3):315-331.
Dastorani MT, Moghadamnia A, Piri J, Rico-Ramirez M, 2010. Application of ANN and ANFIS models for reconstructing missing flow data, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 166(1-4):421-434.
Elshorbagy AA, Panu US, Simonovic SP, 2000. Group-based estimation of missing hydrological data: I. Approach and general methodology, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 45(6):849-866.
Gümüş V, Kavşut E, 2013. Zamanti Nehri- Ergenuşağı İstasyonu Eksik Aylık Akım Verilerinin Tahmini, Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part:C, Tasarım Ve Teknoloji, 1(2):81-91.
Hughes DA, Smakhtin V, 1996. Daily Flow Time Series Patching or Extension: A Spatial Interpolation Approach Based on Flow Duration Curves, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 41(6):851-871.
Keskin ME, Taylan D, 2009. Artificial Models for inter basin flow prediction in southern Turkey, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 14(7):752-758.
Mohamoud YM, 2008. Prediction of daily flow duration curves and streamflow for ungauged catchments using regional flow duration curves, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(4):706-724.
Sahin S, Cigizoglu HK, 2010. Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set, Hydrological Process, 24(8): 981-992.
Tencaliec P, Favre AC, Prieur C, Mathevet T, 2015. Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models, Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017399.
Turan EN, 2005. Fırat Havzasındaki Barajların Sismik Tehlike ve Potansiyel Risk Analizleri, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Osman Gazi Üniversitesi.
Usul N, 2005. Engineering Hydrology, Book, 403, METU Press, Turkey.