Gizem KAYA, Umut AYDIN, Burç ÜLENGİN, Melis Almula KARADAYI, Füsun ÜLENGİN

AVRUPA ÜLKELERİNDE COVID-19'UN YAYILMASI: DEVLET POLİTİKALARI ETKİLİ Mİ?

Avrupa ülkeleri zaman zaman ulusal sınır kısıtlamaları uygulasa da COVID-19 pandemisinin başlangıcından bu yana vatandaşların ulusal sınırlar arasında serbest dolaşımı nedeniyle Avrupa pandemiden en çok etkilenen bölgelerden biri olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, COVID-19 vakalarının ülkeler arasındaki yayılımı ve COVID-19'a karşı ülke içinde ve ülkeler arasında uygulanan kısıtlamaların etkileri, vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılarak, COVID-19 vakalarının yoğun olarak görüldüğü beş Avrupa ülkesi olan Fransa, Almanya, İtalya, İspanya ve Birleşik Krallık (İngiltere) göz önünde bulundurularak incelenmiştir. Veri dönemi 27 Mart 2020 ile 4 Haziran 2021 tarihleri arasındaki haftalık verileri kapsamaktadır. Sonuçlara göre, sıkılık endeksindeki artış, Fransa ve İtalya için iki hafta sonra, İspanya için ise üç hafta sonra haftalık COVID-19 vaka sayısını önemli ölçüde azaltmıştır. Başka bir deyişle, COVID-19'a karşı belirli bir politikanın kaydedilen vaka sayısı üzerindeki etkisini gözlemlemek yaklaşık 2-3 hafta sürmektedir. COVID-19'un yayılması açısından, Fransa'daki vakalarda bir şok olduğunda Almanya ve İtalya'daki vakaların en çok etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Almanya’daki vakalarda bir şok olduğunda en çok İtalya'daki vakalar etkilenmiştir. İtalya’daki vakalarda bir şok olduğunda en çok Almanya'daki vakalar etkilenmiştir. İspanya’daki vakalarda bir şok olduğunda en çok Almanya'daki vakalar etkilenmiştir. Son olarak, Birleşik Krallık’taki vakalarda bir şok olduğunda en çok Almanya'daki vakalar etkilenmiştir. Özetle, COVID-19 vakaları arttığında Avrupa ülkelerinde en olumsuz etkilenen ülkeler Almanya ve İtalya olarak görünmektedir. Uluslararası seyahat, ülkenin sağlık altyapısı ve insanların maske kullanma alışkanlığı ülkeler arasındaki bu farklılığa neden olabilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

COVID-19, Vektör Hata Düzeltme, Etki Tepki Analizi

SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: ARE STRINGENCIES EFFECTIVE?

Although European countries occasionally impose national border restrictions, Europe was one of the regions that is most affected by the pandemic, owing to the free movement of citizens across national borders since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the spread of COVID-19 cases among countries and the effects of the stringencies imposed against COVID-19 within and between countries were investigated with consideration to five European countries with a large amount of COVID-19 cases, namely, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom (UK) by using Vector Error Correction Model. The data period covers the weekly data from March 27, 2020, to June 4, 2021. According to the results, the increase in the stringency index significantly reduced the number of COVID-19 cases per week after two weeks for France and Italy, and after three weeks for Spain. In other words, it takes about 2–3 weeks to observe the impact of a certain policy against COVID-19 on the number of recorded cases. In terms of the spread of COVID-19, cases in Germany and Italy were the most affected when there was a shock to cases in France. When there was a shock in cases in Germany, cases in Italy were the most affected. When there was a shock in cases in Italy, cases in Germany were the most affected. When there was a shock in cases in Spain, cases in Germany were the most affected. Finally, when there was a shock in cases in the United Kingdom, cases in Germany were the most affected. In summary, Germany and Italy appear to be the most negatively affected countries in Europe when COVID-19 cases increase. International travel, the health infrastructures of the country, and people's habit of using masks may cause this difference in countries.

Keywords:

COVID-19, Vector Error Correction, Impulse Response Analysis,

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