Petrol Fiyatları ile Kişisel Tüketim Harcamaları Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2009-2021 yılları arasında petrol fiyatları ile kişisel tüketim harcamaları arasındaki ilişkinin varlığı Fourier yaklaşımı kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Ham petrol fiyatlarının kişisel tüketim harcamaları ile ilişkisi incelenirken, kişisel tüketim harcamalarının yanı sıra, tüketim mallarının esneklikleri birbirinden farklı olmasından dolayı tüketilen malları dayanıklı, yarı dayanıklı ve dayanıksız tüketim malları olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla öncelikle Fourier durağanlık testi yardımıyla değişkenlerin durağanlığı test edilmiş, seviyelerinde durağan olmayan serilerin farkı alınmış ve fark serilerinin durağan olduğu belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığını sınamak için Fourier-Shin eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye’de ham petrol fiyatlarındaki ani şoklar, yarı dayanıklı ve dayanıksız tüketim harcamaları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu, ancak ham petrol fiyatları ile dayanıklı tüketim malları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bir diğer sonuç ise, ham petrol fiyatlarında olan belirsizlik, tüketicilerin tüketim kararlarında belirleyici bir etken olduğu ancak bu belirleyici unsurun tüm mal grupları için geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Petrol Fiyatları, Fourier Durağanlık, Fourier Eşbütünleşme, Kişisel Tüketim Harcamaları

Analysing The Relationship Between Oil Prices And Personal Consumption Expenditures: A Fourier Approach

In this study, the existence of the relationship between oil prices and personal consumption expenditures in Turkey between the years 2009-2021 was tested using the Fourier approach. While examining the relationship between crude oil prices and personal consumption expenditures, consumption goods are divided into durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods, since the elasticity of consumption goods is different from each other, as well as personal consumption expenditures. For this purpose, first of all, the stationarity of the variables was tested with the help of the Fourier stationarity test, the difference of the non-stationary series at their levels was taken and it was determined that the difference series were stationary. Then, the Fourier-Shin cointegration test was used to test the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The obtained results reveal that there is a long-term relationship between sudden shocks in crude oil prices, semi-durable and non-durable consumption expenditures, but there is no long-term relationship between crude oil prices and durable consumer goods. Another result obtained shows that the uncertainty in crude oil prices is a determining factor in the consumption decisions of consumers, but this determining factor is not valid for all goods groups.

Keywords:

Oil Prices, Fourier Stationarity, Fourier Cointegration, Personal Consumption Expenditures,

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