Büyüme İvmelenmesi ve Demografik Yapı: ECOWAS Ülkeleri Örneği

Ülkelerin demografik yapısı ekonomik büyüme üzerinde önemli etkilere sahiptir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin çoğu demografik geçiş sürecini deneyimlemektedir. Afrika ülkeleri diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelere oranla hala daha yüksek doğurganlık oranlarına sahip olsalar da doğurganlık oranları azalan bir eğilim göstermektedir. Bu durum Afrika ülkelerinde potansiyel bir demografik temettü için bir fırsat penceresine yol açmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, bu çalışmada, 1961-2019 döneminde, ECOWAS (Batı Afrika Ülkeleri Ekonomik Topluluğu) ülkelerinde demografik yapı ile büyüme ivmelenmesi arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, öncelikle Hausmann vd. (2005) tarafından geliştirilen büyüme ivmelenmesi metodolojisi kullanılarak büyüme ivmelenmesi gerçekleşen dönemler belirlenmektedir. Daha sonra büyüme ivmelenmesinin demografik belirleyicileri panel probit yöntemi aracılığıyla incelenmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, kentsel nüfus ve doğumda beklenen yaşam süresinin büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığı üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi olduğunu gösterirken; doğurganlık oranının ise büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığı üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer bir deyişle kentsel nüfus ve doğumda beklenen yaşam süresindeki artış büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığını artırırken, doğurganlık oranındaki artış ise büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığını azaltmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, bağımlılık oranı, yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ve genç bağımlılık oranı ile büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığı arasında negatif yönlü ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Büyüme İvmelenmesi, Demografi, Probit Model

Growth Acceleration and Demographic Structure: The Case of ECOWAS Countries

The demographic structure of countries has significant effects on economic growth. Most developing countries are passing through a demographic transition. Although African countries still have higher fertility rates than other developing countries, fertility rates show a decreasing trend, which leads to a window of opportunity for potential demographic dividend for African countries. Within this context, this paper investigates the relationship between growth accelerations and demographic structure in ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) countries over the period 1961-2019. To do so, first, we identify the growth acceleration episodes using the growth acceleration methodology developed by Hausmann et al. (2005). Then, we test the demographic determinants of growth accelerations employing the panel probit regression method. The results show that while urban population and life expectancy have a significant and positive impact on the likelihood of growth accelerations, the fertility rate has a negative and significant impact on the probability of growth accelerations. In other words, an increase in urban population and life expectancy at birth increases the likelihood of growth accelerations, whereas an increase in fertility rate decreases the probability. However, the results show a negative but statistically insignificant relationship between age dependency, young-age dependency, and old-age dependency ratios and the likelihood of growth accelerations.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Growth Accelerations, Demographics, Probit Model,

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