FİNANSAL KALKINMA İLE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: ÇOK ÜLKELİ BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada; seçilmiş 44 ülkede finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler zaman serisi analizleri kapsamında eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleri kullanılarak 1980 – 2011 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Finansal kalkınmayı temsilen dört vekil değişken ve iktisadi büyüme içinse reel GSYİH’daki yüzde değişim kullanılmıştır. Johansen eşbütünleşme test sonuçları; Avusturya, Barbados, Danimarka, Hong – Kong, İsrail ve BAE dışındaki ülkeler için finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi büyüme arasında eşbütünleşik ilişkilerin varlığını göstermiştir. İlaveten Granger nedensellik analizi bulguları ise, uzun dönemli ilişkilerin elde edilemediği ülkelerden olan Avusturya, Danimarka ve BAE’de dahil olmak üzere toplam 31 ülkede nedensellik ilişkilerine ulaşıldığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca; Finlandiya, Polonya ve BAE’de ilgili değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde çalışmamızdaki bir takım ülkeler için talep takibi görüşünün, diğer bir kısmı içinse arz önderliği hipotezinin geçerli olduğu belirtilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Kalkınma, İktisadi Büyüme, Johansen Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Granger Nedensellik Analizi

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In this paper, the linkages between financial development and economic growth in selected 44 countries are investigated by using cointegration and causality tests within the context of time series analysis in the period 1980 – 2011. To measure the financial development four proxy variables are used and for the economic growth the percent changes of GDP with constant prices are taken into consideration. The results of the Johansen cointegration analysis show that the cointegration relationship between the financial development and economic growth is detected for some countries, except for Austria, Barbados, Denmark, Hong – Kong, Israel and UAE. In addition, the findings of Granger causality analysis indicate that the causality relationship is valid in the total of 31 countries, the three of them are Austria, Denmark and UAE in which the long – run relations cannot be reached. Besides, the bidirectional causality nexus among the variables is obtained in Finland, Poland and UAE. As a whole, it is possible to say that the view of demand following is valid for some country group, while the supply leading phenomenon is valid for the other country group.

Keywords:

Financial Development, Economic Growth, Johansen Cointegration Analysis, Granger Causality Analysis,

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