Türkiye'de Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dışa Açıklık İlişkisi: ARDL Modeli

Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de nihai enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme ve dışa açıklık arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesidir. Bu amaca yönelik olarak, 1960- 2013 dönemine ilişkin veriler kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan değişkenlerin tamamının aynı derecede durağanlığa sahip olmamaları nedeniyle Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ter- cih edilmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, nihai enerji tüketimi, gayri safi yurti- çi hâsıla artışı ve dışa açıklık değişkenleri arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisinin bu- lunduğu tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönem için kurulan ARDL modeli ve kısa dönem analizi için oluşturulan Hata Düzeltme Modeli sonuçlarına göre; incelenen dö- nem içerisinde Türkiye’de nihai enerji tüketimi ve dışa açıklık arasında istatistik- sel olarak anlamlı sonuç bulunmazken, her iki dönemde nihai enerji tüketimi ve gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla artışı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.

The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Openness in Turkey: an ARDL Model

The main objective of this study is determine the relationship between final energy consumption, economic growth and openness in Turkey. For this purpo- se, we tested a model using data for 1960-2013 period. All of the variables that we have used in this study do not have the same degree of stability. For this re- ason, we have applied the Bounds Test approach. As a result of the analysis, a cointegration relationship has been identified between final energy consumption, gross domestic product growth and openness. According to the long run ARDL Model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model) and the short run Error Correcti- on Model, the relationship between final energy consumption and openness was statistically insignificant. But, a positive and statistically significant relationship between final energy consumption and gross domestic product growth exists in the long and short term.

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Kaynak Göster