ABTRACT With annual average of 73,937 occupational accidents and 1,152 deaths, Turkey still faces an important problem. The country exercises one of the lowest performances in job safety among the European Union countries. Developments in technology increased the importance of safety management in industry. These improvements also resulted in a requirement of more investment and assignment on human in work systems. This situation increases the importance of forecasting the possible accidents that workers can face and preventing the accidents by taking necessary precautions. In this study a prognostic model has been developed to forecast the occupational accidents in coming periods at the departments of the facilities in hazardous work systems. The validity of the proposed model has been proved by implementing it into practice in hazardous work systems in the manufacturing industry