Seyfettin ERDOĞAN, Durmuş Çağrı YILDIRIM, Ayfer GEDİKLİ

COVID-19 Pandemi Döneminde Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: Avrupa Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi

Amaç: Küresel ekonomide son dönemde yaşanmakta olan makroekonomik sorunlar, koronavirüs hastalığı 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ile yakından ilgilidir. Hastalığın en yüksek yayılımı ağırlıklı olarak Avrupa ülkelerinde görüldüğünden, Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyesi ve birliğe aday ülkelerdeki makroekonomik göstergeleri araştırmak anlamlı olacaktır. Enflasyon, birçok makroekonomik değişkeni doğrudan etkileyebileceği için incelenmesi gereken en önemli göstergelerden biridir. Bu çalışmada 28 AB üyesi ve birliğe aday ülkede enflasyonun belirleyicileri araştırılmıştır. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu çalışmada, Ocak 2020-Temmuz 2020 dönemi ele alınarak 28 AB üyesi ve birliğe aday ülkede enflasyonun belirleyicileri mekansal panel veri analizi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Bulgular: Ampirik sonuçlar, döviz kuru ve para arzındaki değişimlerin enflasyondaki artışın en belirgin nedenleri olduğunu göstermiştir. Yurt içi para arzı ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin yanı sıra ülkeler arası komşuluk ilişkileri nedeniyle de enflasyon oranları üzerinde artan bir baskı olduğu gözlenmiştir (pozitif mekansal etkiler). Sonuç: Her örnek ülkenin yereldeki makroekonomik sorunlarının, iç dinamikler yanında komşu ülkelerdeki gelişmelerden de etkilendiği önemli bir bulgudur. Pandemi sürecinde, bölgesel düzeyde komşu ülkeler arasında ekonomik, sosyal ve politik işbirliğinin geliştirilmesi elzemdir. Pandemi döneminde, her ülkenin tarım, gıda, teknoloji ve ilaç endüstrileri alanlarında kendi kendine yeten stratejiler geliştirmesi akılcı bir strateji olacaktır. Bölgesel işbirliği, pandemi döneminde öne çıkan sektörlerin gelişimi ile sınırlı kalmamalı, geniş katılımlı işbirlikleri her alanda ele alınmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

COVID-19, enflasyon, AB ülkeleri, mekansal panel veri analizi

Dynamics and Determinants of Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic Period in European Countries: A Spatial Panel Data Analysis

Aim: The recent macroeconomic problems in the global economy are highly related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Since the highest spread of the disease is observed in the European countries, it is worthwhile to investigate the macroeconomic indicators in the European Union (EU) member and the candidate countries. Inflation is one of the most important indicators to examine since it may directly affect many macroeconomic variables. In this study, the determinants of inflation in the 28 EU members and candidate states are investigated. Material and Methods: In this study, the determinants of inflation in the 28 EU members and candidate states are investigated for January 2020-July 2020 using spatial panel data analysis. Results: The empirical results indicated that the exchange rate and money supply ratios were reasons of the increase in inflation. There is also increasing pressure on the inflation rates due to the domestic money supply and exchange rate variables as well as the neighborhood relations between countries (positive spatial effects). Conclusion: It is an important finding that macroeconomic problems in each sample country are also affected by developments in neighboring countries as well as internal dynamics. Continuous development of economic, social, and political cooperation between neighboring countries at the regional level is essential. It is reasonable for every country to develop self-sufficient strategies in the fields of agriculture, food, technology, and pharmaceutical industries in case of global disasters. Regional cooperation should not be limited to the development of sectors that stand out during the pandemic period.

Keywords:

COVID-19, inflation, EU countries, spatial panel data analysis,

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