Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey

In this research, 15 meteorological stations located in western Anatolia in Turkey were investigated for determining temperature properties. The vegetation season has been determined according to days when the daily temperature was greater than or equal to 8°C. The research area has 3 different vegetation durations as longer (more than 225 days in the western and southern parts), moderate (210-220 days in plateaus around Uşak, Gediz and Demirci), and shorter (180-195 days in the eastern part and less than 180 days in mountainous areas). Then, the vegetation has been reinvestigated according to climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). For this purpose, the daily mean temperatures were raised by 2.6°C and 4.8°C for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In the reinvestigation period, the vegetation period will increase about 15-20 days or over 40 days according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Along with the increase in temperature throughout the research area, growing seasons will be significantly affected, beginning and ending dates of vegetation would shift. Owing to climate change effects, mountainous areas may be affected more than low altitude areas. As a conclusion due to the result of increasing temperature, plant development and distribution will be affected, and new plant species may occur.

Vejetasyon Döneminin İklim Değişimi Senaryolarına Göre Değerlendirilmesi: İç Batı Anadolu Bölümü Örneği

Araştırma alanı Türkiye’nin batısında yer alan İç Batı Anadolu Bölümüdür. Bu çalışmada bölümün sıcaklık özelliklerinin belirlenmesi için 15 farklı meteoroloji istasyonun verileri kullanılmıştır. Vejetasyon dönemi, günlük sıcaklık değerlerinin 8°C ve üzerinde olan gün sayısına göre belirlenmiştir. Araştırma alanında kısa (doğuda 180-195 gün arasında ve dağlık alanlarda 180 günün altında), orta (Uşak, Gediz ve Demirci platoları civarında 210-220 gün) ve uzun (batıda ve güneyde 225 günün üzerinde) dönem olmak üzere 3 farklı vejetasyon döneminin olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca, vejetasyon dönemi iklim değişimi senaryolarına (RCP 4.5 ve 8.5) göre yeniden belirlenmiştir. Bunun için günlük ortalama sıcaklıklar RCP 4.5 ve 8.5 senaryolarına göre sırasıyla 2.6°C ve 4.8°C arttırılmıştır. İklim değişimi etkileri ile günlük ortalama sıcaklıklar tekrardan incelendiğinde, vejetasyon süresinde RCP 4.5 senaryosuna göre 15-20 gün, 8.5 senaryosuna göre ise 40 günün üzerinde artış olabilir. Araştırma alanında bu sıcaklık artışları ile vejetasyon devresi önemli olarak etkilenebilir, vejetasyon döneminin başlangıcı ve sona erme tarihlerinde kaymalar olabilir. İklim değişimi etkisi yükseltisi az olan alanlara göre en çok dağlık alanlarda hissedilebilir. Bu çalışmanın sonucuna göre, araştırma alanındaki sıcaklık artışı bitkilerin gelişimi ile dağılışını etkileyebilir ve bu sahalara yeni bitki türleri de sokulabilir.


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