TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIK SORUNUNUN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME AÇISINDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyümenin, cari açık üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmek amacı ile tasarlanmıştır. Çalışmanın amacına uygun olarak cari işlemler açığı (CAD), kişi başına enerji tüketimi (ENCN) ve ekonomik büyüme (GDP) değişkenleri ele alınmıştır. Ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen kişi başına düşen reel milli gelir kullanılmıştır. Dönem olarak verilere ulaşılabilirlik durumuna göre 1974-2015 yılları aralığının seçildiği çalışmada, değişkenlere ait seriler yıllık olarak Dünya Bankası veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın, literatürdeki cari açık ile belirleyicileri üzerine yapılan diğer ampirik çalışmalardan farkı ise; cari açığa büyük oranda neden olduğu düşünülen değişkenlerin spesifik olarak ele alınması ve bunların farklı dönem ve farklı modeller ile analiz edilmiş olmasıdır. Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Philips-Perron (PP) birim kök testlerinin uygulandığı çalışmada serilerin, birinci farkları alındığında durağan hale geldikleri görülmüştür. Daha sonra yapılan Granger nedensellik analizinin sonucunda hem ekonomik büyümeden hem de enerji tüketiminden cari açığa doğru %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH PROBLEMS IN TURKEY ON EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

1. LITERATURE In the following section we discuss the literature that examine the effects of energy consumption and economic growth on the current account deficit. These studies generally show that energy consumption and economic growth have a positive effect on the current account deficit. For example: Stern, (1993) examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for the US economy. Using the Granger causality test, the author addresses the period 1947-1990. His research shows that energy consumption is the cause of economic growth. Chuku et al., (2011) covers 1970-2008 period. They analyse the causality between oil prices and the current account deficit for the Nigerian economy. As a result of their test with the VAR method, they have found that there is a significant causal relationship between oil price shocks and the current account balance. Erol and Güneş (2017) analyse the relationship between energy imports, economic growth and the current account deficit in Turkish context. Researchers covers the period between 1990-2015 in their studies and made their analysis by using the Johansen cointegration test. The authors find that there is a long-term relationship between the variables, that is to say, as energy consumption increases, growth also increases. Barbaros et al. (2018) investigate the effects of economic growth and energy consumption on the current account balance in Turkish context. The study uses VAR model and discusses variables such as economic growth, energy consumption and current account deficit. The authors cover the period between 1980-2013. They do not find any causal relationship between the variables. 2. DESIGN AND METHOD This study is designed to analyse the impacts of energy consumption and economic growth on the current account deficit in Turkey. In line with the purpose of the study, current account deficit (CAD), per capita, energy consumption (ENCN) and economic growth (GDP) variables are discussed. Real national income per capita is used to represent economic growth. In the study, the period between1974-2015 is selected due to the accessibility of the data. These series of variables are obtained annually from the World Bank database. Unlike the empirical studies about the current account deficit and its determinants in the literature, this study specifically addresses the variables that are considered to play a greater role in the current deficit. In addition to this, it uses different models and different periods. In the study, where the Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) unit root tests are applied, the series became stable when their first differences were taken. As a result of the subsequent Granger causality analysis, a significant causality relationship was found at a level of 5% significance from both economic growth and energy consumption to the current account deficit. This part of the study explains the variables that are used in the analysis. These variables are energy consumption and economic growth, which have a significant impact on the current account deficit. CAD represents the current account deficit, ENCN represents per capita energy consumption and GDP represents economic growth. Real national income per capita represents the economic growth. The analysis covers the period between 1974-2015. There are two factors behind this decision: data availability and outward oriented policies that are dominant in Turkish economy during 1980s. The data are taken from the World Bank database. In the analysis of the series, Eviews 7.2. program was used. 3. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION Granger causality test was applied after taking the first differences of the series of variables and making them stable. When the results are analysed, a significant causality relationship has been found at the level of 5% significance from both economic growth and energy consumption to the current account deficit. This finding is an expected result. However, apart from this, there is no causal relationship between the other variables. There is no causality relationship from current account deficit and energy consumption to economic growth as well as economic growth and current account deficit to energy consumption. 4. CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS AND LIMITATIONS This study investigates Turkey’s economy between 1974 and 2020.

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Business and Management Studies: An International Journal-Cover
  • ISSN: 2148-2586
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2013
  • Yayıncı: ACC Publishing
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