Subjective Financial Distress in the Formation of Consumer Confidence: Evidence from Novel Household Data

Bu makalede hane halkı verileri kullanılarak tüketici güvenini etkileyen psikolojik ve sosyal-ekonomik faktörler araştırılmıştır. Makro bazdaki Tüketici Güven Endeksi (TGE) gelişmiş ülkelerde sıkça kullanılmakla birlikte, diğer iktisadi endekslerde rastlanmayan kendine özgü bilgiler içermediği konusundaki kaygılar hakkındaki tartışmalar da sürmektedir. Mevcut makalenin iki ana hedefi vardır: (1) Mikro verileri kullanarak endeksin içindeki soruları ayrı ayrı analiz edip tüketici güveni ile korelasyonu olan sosyal ve ekonomik değişkenleri tespit etmek, ve (2) daha önce bu bağlamda kullanılmamış ve tüketicinin mevcut mali borçları ve bunları ileride ödeyememeleri durumundaki psikolojik hislerini ölçen Sübjektif Mali Sıkıntı (SFS) isimli yeni bir değişkenin etkisini araştırmak. Yapılan analizler sonunda SFS ile TGE arasında tutarlı bir şekilde yüksek derecede korelasyon olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Diğer birçok sosyal ve ekonomik değişkenlerin de kontrol edilmelerine rağmen, daha yüksek stresli olan tüketicilerin daha az güven hissettikleri ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonuç tüketicilerin ekonomik durum hakkında görüş oluşturduklarında mevcut genel bilgilerden de öte kendi psikolojik eğilimlerine de başvurduklarını göstermektedir.

Tüketici Güven Endeksi'nin Oluşumunda Sübjektif Mali Sıkıntı'nın Rolü: Orijinal Hane Halkı Verisinden Elde Edilen Bulgular

In this paper we analyze the psychological and socio-economic determinants of consumer confidence using household level data. Even though the aggregate Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is widely utilized by policy-makers in developed countries, there is still some concern that the index does not contain any information that is not already available in other economic measures. Our paper has two main objectives: (1) to analyze the individual questions in the index and to identify the correlates of consumer confidence by using micro level data, and (2) to study a new variable, subjective financial distress (SFD), that captures the 'mood' of the consumers that might be useful in explaining consumer confidence. SFD measures how much stress consumers have about their current debt obligations and how concerned they are about the inability to pay off the debt in the future. We consistently find that SFD is correlated with overall CCI and its individual questions. Higher distress is found to increase the probability of reporting negative sentiment, even in the presence of many other economic and demographic variables. This result should be seen as evidence that there are psychological factors in the formation of consumer confidence, and hence that using a consumer confidence index, along with other economic variables, to forecast economic activity is justified. These results also indicate that consumer confidence reflects more than just the information consumers have about economic activity


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