Migration, Openness and the Global Preconditions of ‘Smart Development'

Bu makalede, akıllı kalkınma, akıllı kalkınmanın ölçümü, etkileyen faktörler ve darboğazlar hakkında ilk ampirik bulgularımızı sunmaktayız. Çalışmada kullanılan veri, dünya sistemi uluslarının, belli bir demokrasi, iktisadi büyüme, cinsiyet eşitliği, insani gelişme, araştırma-geliştirme ve sosyal dayanışma seviyesini sunabilmek için ne kadar ekolojik ayak izi kullandıklarına dair uluslararası yatay kesit sunmaktadır. Bu amaçla, önce kalkınmanın bu altı boyutu için ve bunların kombine edilmiş performansı için UNDP benzeri performans göstergeleri geliştirdik. Ardından, kalkınmanın altı boyutu ve bu boyutların kombine edilmiş performans endeksi için, kişi başına düşen ekolojik ayak izine dair non-lineer regresyon ödünleşmelerini göstermekteyiz. Bu regresyonların artıkları, akıllı kalkınmanın yeni ölçütlerini oluşturmakta: Bir ülke eğer minimum ekolojik ayak izi ile maksimum kalkınma elde edebiliyorsa, akıllı kalkınmayı deneyimlemekte demektir. Bunun ardından, ulusların “akıllı kalkınması”nı etkileyen faktörleri ve darboğazları incelemekte ve bunların sahip oldukları öngörü gücünü adım adım regresyon metoduyla karşılaştırmaktayız. Sosyoloji kökenli bağımlılık ve dünya sistemi kuramlarından elde edilen önemli değişken ve göstergelerin yanı sıra, başka pek çok kestirim faktörünün öngörü gücünü de test etmekteyiz. Tahminlerimiz, göç nedeniyle kaynakların merkezden çepere olan transferinin muazzam öneminin altını çizmektedir. Ayrıca, işçi dövizlerinin; akıllı kalkınma, Mutlu Yaşam Yılları, akıllı cinsiyet eşitliği, akıllı araştırma-geliştirme ve akıllı kalkınma endeksinin iki göstergesi üzerindeki büyük istatistiki pozitif etkisini de ortaya koymaktadır.

Göç, Dışa Açıklık ve “Akıllı Kalkınma”nın Global Önkoşulları

We present a first empirical reflection on smart development,’ its measurement, possible drivers and bottlenecks.’ We first provide cross-national data on how much ecological footprint is used in the nations of the world system to deliver a given amount of democ- racy, economic growth, gender equality, human development, research and development, and social cohesion. To this end, we first developed UNDP-type performance indicators on these six main dimensions of development and on their combined performance. We then show the non-linear regression trade-offs between ecological footprints per capita on these six dimensions of development and their combined performance index. The residuals from these regressions are our new measures of smart development (a country experiences smart development, if it achieves a maximum development with a minimum of ecological footprint). We then look at the cross-national drivers and bottlenecks of this smart development and compare their predictive power using stepwise regression procedures. Apart from important variables and indicators, derived from sociological dependency and world systems theories, we also test the predictive power of several other predictors as well. Our estimates underline the enormous importance of the transfer of resources from the center to the periphery, brought about by migration, with huge statistical observed positive effects of received worker remittances on smart human development, Happy Life Years, smart gender justice, smart R&D, and both formula- tions of the smart development index.

Kaynakça

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