International Financial Contagion: The Role of the UK

Bu çalışmanın amacı küresel kredi krizinin Amerika’dan Türkiye’ye transfer edilmesinde İngiltere’nin rolünü test etmektir. Bu çalışmada krizlerin transfer mekanizmalarının ana- lizi adına literatürde sıklıkla uygulama alanı bulan bulaşıcılık modellerinden Forbes ve Rigobon modeli ile Dungey, Fry, Gonzalez-Hermosillo ve Martin modellerinin sonuçları karşılaştırmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda küresel kredi krizinin Amerika’dan İngiltere ve Türkiye’ye doğru bir bulaşıcılık etkisinin varlığı vurgulanmıştır. İngiltere’nin bu küresel kredi krizini Amerika’dan Türkiye’ye transfer edilmesinde üstlendiği rolle ilgili kanıtlar daha çok DFGM modeli ile yakalanmıştır. Son olarak ise küresel kredi krizinin Türkiye ticari değil finansal yolla transfer edildiğine yönelik bulgular vurgulanmıştır.

Finansal Krizlerin Uluslararası Bulaşıcılığı: İngiltere’nin Rolü

The purpose of this study is to consider the role of the United Kingdom in the effect of transferring the global credit crisis from the United States to Turkey. This study compares the results of the most commonly used contagion models, which are known as Forbes and Rigobon model and Dungey, Fry, Gonzalez-Hermosillo and Martin model. More- over, this study presents evidence regarding the manner of transmission of the crisis. This study confirmed that there is a strong contagion effect from the United States to Turkey and the United Kingdom. The importance of the United Kingdom in transfer- ring this shock is captured in the DFGM model more accurately than in the FR model. Finally, the global credit crisis is transferred to Turkey through financial linkages rather than trade linkages. The existence and direction of contagion create an opportunity for investors to use international hedging strategies and asset allocation.

Kaynakça

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