Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü, Dış Şoklar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi:Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Çalışma

Bu çalışma, seçilmiş 7 OECD ülkesi (Belçika, Finlandiya, Danimarka, Norveç, Fransa, Kanada ve Japonya) özelinde kamu kesimi büyüklüğü, dış şoklar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini, 19802015 dönemi için yıllık veri seti kullanmak suretiyle ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik analizinden istifade edilerek elde edilen bulgular, Finlandiya, Danimarka ve Japonya’da kamu kesimi büyüklüğü ve dış şoklardan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu; diğer ülkelerde ise böyle bir ilişkinin olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Government Size, External Shocks, and Economic Growth Nexus: An Econometric Study on Selected OECD Countries

This study aims to analyze empirically the nexus among government size, external shocks, and economic growth in the context of selected 7 OECD countries (Belgium, Finland, Denmark, Norway, France, Canada, and Japan) by using annual data set for the period 19802015. The results of the study obtained by employing Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis reveal that there exists a one-way causality running from government size and external shocks to economic growth for Finland, Denmark, and Japan, but not for other countries.


Yamamura, E. (2011). Decomposition of the Effect of Government Size on Growth. Economics Letter, 112, 230-232.

Wahab, M. (2004). Economic Growth and Government Expenditure: Evidence from a New Test Specification. Applied Economics, 36(19), 2125-2135.

Şen, H., Kaya, A., and Alpaslan, B. (2015). Education, Health, and Economic Growth Nexus: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis for Developing Countries. The University of Manchester, Economics Discussion Paper Series, No: EDP-1502, p. 21.

Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311-323.

Scully, G. W. (1995). The “Growth Tax” in the United States. Public Choice, 85, 71-80.

Saunders, P. (1985). Public Expenditure and Economic Performance in OECD Countries. Journal of Public Policy, 5, 1-21.

Sakashita, Y. and Yoshizaki, Y. (2016). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on IIP and CPI in Emerging Countries. Economies, 4(4), 1-9.

Rodrik, D. (1998). Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments. Journal of Political Economy, 106(5), 997-1032.

Rahn, R. and Fox, H. (1996). What is the Optimal Size of Government?. Vernon K. Kriebe Foundation.

Ram, R. (1986). Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data. American Economic Review, 76, 191-203.

Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Crosssection Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.

Pesaran, M.H. and Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.

Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper Series, No: 1229, p. 42.

Oto-Peralías, D. and Romero-Ávila, D. (2013). Tracing the Link Between Government Size and Growth: The Role of Public Sector Quality. KYKLOS, 66(2), 229-255.

OECD (2017). 13 Kasım 2017 tarihinde https://data.oecd.org/trade/terms-of-trade.htm adresinden erişildi.

Nguyen, T. L. H., Tran, T. G. and Le, T. H. M. (2014). The Impact of External Shocks on Small Economies: Evidence from East Asian Countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(2), 206- 217.

Mohanty, M. and Zampolli, F. (2009). Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability. BIS Quarterly Review, December 2009, 14.

Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978-992.

Kormendi, R. C. and Meguire, P. G. (1985). Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 141-163.

Hurlin, C. (2008). Testing for Granger Non Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Mimeo, University of Orleans, Department of Economics.

Islam, A., and Nazemzadeh, A. (2001). Causal Relationship between Government Size and Economic Development: An Empirical Study of the U.S.. Southwestern Economic Review, 28, 75-88.

IMF (2015c). 18 Kasım 2017 tarihinde ttps://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx adresinden ulaşıldı.

MF (2015b). 13 Kasım 2017 tarihinde adresinden http://www.imf.org/external/error.htm?URL=http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015 erişildi.

IMF (2015a). 15 Kasım 2017 tarihinde https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/ adresinden erişildi.

Hansson, P. and Henrekson, M. (1994). A new Framework for Testing the Effect of Government Spending on Growth and Productivity. Public Choice, 81, 381-401.

Grier, K. B. (1997). Governments, Unions and Economic Growth. In: V. Bergström (Ed.), Government and Growth, Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Ghose, A. and Das, S. (2013). Government Size and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 6(1), 14-38.

Gali, J. (1994). Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability. European Economic Review, 38, 117- 32.

Folster, S. and Henrekson, M. (2001). Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries. European Economic Review, 45, 1501-1520.

Feldmann, H. (2010). Government Size and Unemployment in Developing Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 17(3), 289-292.

Feldmann, H. (2009). Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Developing Countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 315-330.

Fatás, A. and Mihov, I. (2001). Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence. Journal of International Economics, 55, 3-28.

Engen, E. and Skinner, J. (1992). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth. in Paper presented at NBER Conference on Taxation, No: 4223.

Economy Watch (2017). http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/price-index- indicators/Crude_Oil_Price_Index/(Erişim: 15.11.2017)

de Mendonça, H. F. and Cacicedo, T. (2014). Size of Government and Economic Growth in the Largest Latin American Country. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 904-910.

Connolly, M. and Li, C. (2016). Government Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(4), 386-395.

Chen, S.T and Lee, C. C. (2005). Government Size and Economic Growth in Taiwan: A Threshold Regression Approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27, 1051-1066.

Chao, J. C. P. and Herbert, G. (1998). Optimal Levels of Spending and Taxation in Canada, In: Herbert Grubel (Ed.), How to Use the Fiscal Surplus, The Fraser Institute: Vancouver.

Chiou-Wei, S.Z., Zhu, Z. and Kuo Y.H. (2010). Government Size and Economic Growth: An Application of The Smooth Transition Regression Model. Applied Economics Letters, 17(14), 1405-1415.

Caselli, F., Esquivel, G. and Lefort, F. (1996). Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross- country Growth Empirics. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 363-389.

Breusch, T. and Pagan, A. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, 239-253.

Borcherding, T. E., Ferris, J. S. and Garzoni, A. (2003). Growth in the Real Size of Government since 1970. Handbook of Public Finance: Kluwer Academic Press, MA.

Blecker, R.A. (2009). External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979– 2007. World Development, 37(7), 1274-1284.

Bergh, A. and Karlsson, M. (2010). Government Size and Growth: Accounting for Economic Freedom and Globalization. Public Choice, 142 (1-2), 195-213.

Barth, J. R. and Bradley, M. (1998). The Impact of Government Spending on Economic Activity. Mimeo, The National Chamber Foundation: Washington, D.C.

Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic Growth in a Cross-section of Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.

Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103-125.

Armey, R. (1995). The Freedom Revolution. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing Co.

Almansour, A., Aslam, A., Bluedorn, J., and Duttagupta, R. (2015). How Vulnerable are Emerging Markets to External Shocks?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, 460-483.

Agell, J., Ohlsson, H. and Skogman, T. P. (2006). Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries: A Comment. European Economic Review, 50, 211-218.

Agell, J., Lindh, T. and Ohlsson, H. (1997). Growth and the Public Sector: A Critical Review Essay. European Journal of Political Economy, 13, 33-52.

Kaynak Göster