Türkiye’deki Jeotermal Enerji Santrallerinin Kümülatif Kurulu Gücünün Yapay Sinir Ağı ve İki Yönlü Uzun-Kısa Vadeli Bellek Kullanılarak Tahmini

Türkiye büyük bir yenilenebilir enerji potansiyeline sahiptir. Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından elektrik üreten santrallerin sayısı ve buna bağlı olarak kurulu güç yıllar içinde artış göstermiştir. Aralık 2021 sonu itibarıyla Türkiye'nin kümülatif kurulu gücü 99819,6 MW'a ulaşmıştır ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından elektrik üreten enerji santrallerinin toplam kurulu güç içindeki payı %53,72 olmuştur. Kurulu güç artmasına rağmen toplam elektrik üretiminde, yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları kullanan enerji santrallerinin oranı henüz istenen düzeyde değildir. Bununla birlikte, jeotermal enerji, en çok bilinen diğer yenilenebilir enerji türlerinin yanı sıra elektrik üretiminde giderek daha fazla kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye'de jeotermal enerji santrallerinin (JES) kurulu gücünün 2007 yılından sonra yavaş yavaş artmaya başladığı ve Aralık 2021 sonunda kümülatif kurulu gücün 1676,2 MW'a ulaştığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki JES'lerin 2007-2021 dönemindeki kümülatif kurulu gücü verileriyle, Yapay Sinir Ağı ve İki Yönlü Uzun-Kısa Vadeli Bellek kullanılarak Türkiye'deki JES'lerin 2022 yılı kümülatif kurulu gücü tahmin edilmiştir ve sonuçlar karşılaştırılarak yorumlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

kurulu güç, jeotermal enerji, tahmin, yapay sinir ağı

Prediction of Cumulative Installed Power of Geothermal Power Plants in Turkey by Using Artificial Neural Network and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory

Turkey has a great potential for renewable energies. The number of power plants (PP) producing electricity from renewable energy sources and accordingly the installed power has risen over the years. As of the end of December 2021, the cumulative installed power of Turkey reached 99819.6 MW and the share of the total installed power of the PPs generating electricity from renewable energy sources was 53.72%. Although the installed power has increased, the percentage of PPs using renewable energy sources in total electricity generation is not yet at the desired level. However, geothermal energy is being used more and more in electricity generation alongside the other most well-known types of renewable energy. It can be observed that the installed power of geothermal power plants (GPP) in Turkey started to increase gradually after 2007, and as of the end of December 2021, the cumulative installed power reached 1676.2 MW. In this study, with the data for the cumulative installed power of GPPs in Turkey in the 2007-2021 period, the cumulative installed power of GPPs in Turkey for 2022 was predicted by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) methods, and the results were compared and interpreted.

Keywords:

installed power, geothermal energy, prediction, artificial neural network,

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