Bulanık Mantık Yaklaşımı Kullanılarak Kızılırmak Nehri Aylık Ortalama Akımlarının Tahmini

Hidrolik yapılarının projelendirilmesi ve işletmesinde akarsu akım değerleri kullanılmaktadır. Doğru akım değerinin belirlenmesi, hidrolik yapıların işletilmesinde, tarım arazilerinin sulanması, hidroelektrik üretimi, çevre koruması ve taşkın kontrolü açılarından önemlidir. Literatürde eldeki veriler kullanılarak olması muhtemel nehir akımlarının tahmin edilmesi için farklı yöntemler kullanılmaktadır. Bulanık mantık yaklaşımı, belirsizlik içeren problemlerin çözümünde kullanılan bir tür akıllı sistem yöntemidir. Yöntem son yıllarda hidrolojik verilerin modellenmesinde yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, bulanık mantık yöntemi, Türkiye’ nin en büyük havzalarından birisi olan Kızılırmak havzasındaki Kızılırmak Nehri üzerinde bulunan Yamula İstasyonuna ait akım verilerinin tahmin edilmesi için uygulanmıştır. Bu akım istasyonu verileri yanında, istasyona etki eden Kayseri meteoroloji istasyonuna ait aylık ortalama sıcaklık ve aylık toplam yağış verileri de modelleme için kullanılmıştır. Akım tahminleri için üç farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Bu modellerde girdi değeri olarak sıcaklık, yağış verileri, nehir akım değerleri ise çıktı olarak seçilmiştir. Modellerde, istasyonlara ait 1982-2012 verileri kullanılmıştır. Model çıktı verileri ve 2013, 2014 ve 2015 yıllarına ait veriler ile test edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, bulanık mantık yönteminin hem sıcaklık hem de yağış verilerinin girdi olarak kullanıldığında sağlıklı sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Bulanık mantık, Nehir akım, Sıcaklık, Yağış

Estimation of the Monthly Average Flows of the Kızılırmak River Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

River flow values are used in the design and operation of hydraulic structures. Determining the correct flow value is important in terms of controlling water movements in the operation of hydraulic structures, irrigation of agricultural lands, hydroelectric production, environmental protection and flood control. In the literature, different methods are used to predict possible river flows using the available data. The fuzzy logic approach is a kind of intelligent system method used in solving problems involving uncertainty. The method has been widely used in the modeling of hydrological data for 2000’s. In this study, the fuzzy logic method was applied to estimate the flow data of Yamula Station on the Kızılırmak River in the Kızılırmak basin, one of the largest basins in Turkey. In addition to these flow station data, the monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data of the Kayseri meteorology station, which affects the station flows, were also used for modeling. Three different models were created for the flow estimates. In these models, temperature and precipitation data were selected as input values and river flow data were chosen as output values. In the models, 1982-2012 data of the stations were used. Model output data were tested with data set of 2013, 2014 and 2015. As a result, it has been seen that the fuzzy logic approach gave healthy results when both temperature and precipitation data were used as inputs.

Keywords:

Fuzzy logic, Precipitation, River flow, Temperature,

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