Avrupa Ekonomik ve Parasal Birliği’nde Konjonktür Senkronizasyonu: Optimum Para Sahası Teorisinin Kriz Döneminde Test Edilmesi

Konjoktürlerin senkronizasyonu para birlikleri için hayati öneme sahiptir. Tek bir para otoritesi, ortak para politikasını kullanarak para birliği üyelerinin farklı problemlerine- enflasyon, işsizlik gibi- çözüm sağlayamaz. Bu nedenle üye olacak ülkelerin konjonktürlerinin senkronizasyonu optimum para sahası teorisinde meta kriter olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Avrupa Ekonomik ve Parasal Birliği (EPB) kapsamında ülkelerin konjonktürlerinin ne kadar senkronize olduğu birçok çalışmada test edilmiştir. Bu çalışmaların çoğunda da konjonktürlerin birlikte dalgalanmasını ölçmek adına korelasyon katsayıları kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada 12 EPB ülkesinin 1980-2014 arasında konjonktürleri incelenmiş ve senkronizasyon ölçütü olarak da Massman ve Mitchell (2003)'i takiben çift taraflı korelasyonlar kullanılmıştır. Kendinden önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak bu çalışma kriz dönemlerini de içermekte ve kriz dönemindeki senkronizasyonu da ortaya koymaktadır. Yapılan analizler sonucu, üç önemli bulguya ulaşılmıştır. İlk olarak, parasal entegrasyon ilerledikçe Frankel ve Rose (1998)'un iddia ettiği gibi konjonktür senkronizasyonu artmaktadır. İkincisi, senkronizasyon finansal kriz dönemlerinde artmaktadır. Son olarak ise krizin hemen ardından konjonktürlerin senkronizasyonu azalmıştır. Bunun en önemli nedeni ise ülkelerin farklı hızla toparlanmasıdır

BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION (EMU): TESTING THE OCA DURING

Business cycle synchronization is of vital importance in the functioning of monetary union. A single monetary authority pursuing a “one size fits all monetary policy” would not be able to address problems such as inflation or unemployment of members which have divergent business cycles. Therefore, business cycle synchronization is regarded as a meta criterion for the optimum currency area theory. Several studies in literature have tested the business cycle synchronization and have particularly focused on Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Most studies have used correlation of the cycles as a synchronization measure. In this study, the business cycle synchronization in EMU12 countries from 1980 to 2014 was tested and the mean of the bilateral correlation coefficients of the cycles was used as a synchronization measure as recommended by Massmann and Mitchell (2003). However, differing from previous studies, the current study tested the business cycle synchronization during the financial crisis. Three important findings emerged as a result. First, synchronization increases with monetary integration as argued by Frankel and Rose (1998). Second, the correlations of the cycles rise with the financial crisis. Third, business cycle synchronization drops in the aftermath of financial crisis due to the different recovery paths of respective countries

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