Yapısal Kırılmanın Varlığında Türkiye’nin Turizm Yanlı Büyüme Tecrübesine Dair Ampirik Bulgular

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 1965 – 2013 döneminde turizm yanlı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliğini analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın ilgili literatüre katkıları iki yönlüdür. Birincisi, söz konusu analiz için en güncel veriler kullanılmıştır. İkincisi, Türkiye için bu alanda, yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi ilk kez uygulanmıştır. Bu bağlamda, ayrıntılı bir giriş bölümünün ardından çalışmada kullanılan veri seti ve model açıklanmaktadır. Ardından yöntem ve ampirik bulgular ayrıntılı olarak verilmektedir. Son olarak ise, ampirik bulguların yorumlarına ve Türkiye için politika önerilerine yer verilmektedir.

Empirical Evidences on Turkish Tourism-led Growth Experience in the Presence of a Structural Break

The aim of this study is analysing the validity of tourism –led growth hypothesis in Turkey for 1965 – 2013. This study’s contributions to the related literature are twofold. Firstly, the most recent data are used for this analysis and secondly, a cointegration analysis based on a structural break in the macroeconomic series is firstly conducted for Turkey. In this context, after a brief introduction, model and data used in this study are explained. Then the methodology and empirical results are given. Lastly, in the conclusions, interpretations of the empirical results and policy implications for Turkey are given.

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