ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİ: TÜRKİYE'DE KÜRESELLEŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN ÇEVRE ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN YENİ DİNAMİK ARDL SİMÜLASYON MODELİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de küreselleşme ve ekonomik büyümenin çevre üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak incelemek için gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin Türkiye’de güncel olarak geçerli olup olmadığı da araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, 1970 ile 2019 arasındaki yıllık zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak yeni bir yöntem olan dinamik ARDL simülasyon modeli ile analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda (1) gayri safi yurtiçi hasılada meydana gelen artışların (azalışların) karbondioksit emisyonlarını hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde artırdığı (azalttığı); (2) gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın karesinde meydana gelen artışların (azalışların) karbondioksit emisyonlarını hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde azalttığı (artırdığı); (3) küreselleşmede meydana gelen artışların (azalışların) karbondioksit emisyonlarını sadece uzun dönemde artırdığı (azalttığı); (4) ekonomik büyümenin çevreyi önce olumsuz etkilediği ve daha sonrasında ise çevreyi olumlu etkilediği, dolayısıyla Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin Türkiye’de güncel olarak geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, politika yapıcıların ekonomik büyümeyi sürdürülebilir bir şekilde artıran ve küreselleşme süreçlerinde çevre dostu politikalar izlemeleri gerektiğini belirtmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi, Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Dinamik ARDL Simülasyon Modeli, CO2 Emisyonları

ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: INVESTIGATION THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON THE ENVIRONMENT IN TURKEY VIA NOVEL DYNAMIC ARDL SIMULATIONS MODEL

This study was carried out to empirically examine the impact of globalization and economic growth on the environment in Turkey. In the study, it was also investigated whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was currently valid or not in Turkey. In the study, analyzes were applied with the novel dynamic ARDL simulation model using annual time series data between 1970 and 2019. The findings showed that (1) increases (decreases) in gross domestic product increased (decrease) carbon dioxide emissions both in the short- and long-run; (2) increases (decreases) in the square of gross domestic product increased (decrease) carbon dioxide emissions both in the short- and long-run; (3) increases (decreases) in globalization increased (decrease) only carbon dioxide emissions in the long-run; (4) economic growth first effected the environment negatively and then positively. Based on these results, it was concluded that the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was currently valid in Turkey. These results indicate that policymakers should follow policies that increase economic growth in a sustainable way and environmentally friendly policies in globalization processes.

Keywords:

Environmental Kuznets Curve, Globalization, Economic Growth, Dynamic ARDL Simulations Model, CO2 Emissions,

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