It is known that, if the ratio of current deficit to the GDP is more than some level, economic crisis is unavoidable. On the other hand most exchange anchor policies implemented so far ended with crisis. So the reason of last two economic crisis is 2000 economic stabilization program itself. The source of current deficit is the deficit of foreign trade. The reasons of increase in foreign trade deficit in 2000 are over valued of TL caused by exchange anchor policy and Custum Union with EU.