Vergi Yapısının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: OECD Ülkelerinden Ampirik Bir Kanıt

Bu çalışmanın amacı, vergi yapısının uzun dönem ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini, 22 OECD ülkesinin 1971-2014 dönemi için araştırmaktır. Konu üzerine daha önce yapılmış çok sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bununla beraber, ampirik metodoloji farklılıklarına bağlı olarak elde edilen sonuçlar da değişebilmektedir. Ayrıca daha önce yapılmış az sayıda çalışma, panelde yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate almıştır. Bu makalede, yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel nedensellik ve dinamik panel tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, uzun dönem ekonomik büyüme performansı üzerinde tüketim vergilerinin dolaylı vergilerin pozitif, vergi yükü ile gelir ve servet vergilerinin dolaysız vergilerin ise negatif etkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu güçlü tahmin sonuçları, uzun dönem ekonomik büyüme performansı için tüketim vergilerinin bozucu olmayan vergiler olduğu iddiasını desteklerken servet vergilerinin büyüme dostu vergiler olduğu iddiasına ise ampirik kanıt sunamamaktadır.

The Impact of Tax Structure on Economic Growth: An Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of tax structure on long-run economic growth for the period 1971 - 2014 of twenty-two OECD countries. There is a large number of studies on this issue. Besides, the acquired results vary depending on differences of empirical methodology. Also, a limited number of previous studies take in consideration the cross-sectional dependence in the panel. In this article panel causality and dynamic panel estimation methods that show regard to the cross-sectional dependence are used. The empirical findings indicate that consumption indirect taxes have a positive impact and that tax levels with income and property direct taxes have a negative impact on long-run economic growth. These robust estimation results, on the one hand, support the claim that consumption taxes are nondistortionary taxes for long-run economic growth, and on the other hand, can not provide any empirical evidence about the claim that property taxes are growth-friendly taxes.

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Ek-1: Analize Dâhil Edilen OECD Ülkeleri Avustralya Avusturya Belçika Kanada Danimarka Finlandiya Fransa Almanya Norveç Portekiz İspanya İsveç Türkiye İngiltere ABD

Ek-2: OECD Vergi Sınıflandırması

Toplam Vergi Gelirleri = (1000+2000+3000+4000+5000+6000)

GELİR VERGİLERİ

Bireylerin gelir, kar payı ve sermaye kazançları üzerindeki vergiler

Kurumların gelir, kar payı ve sermaye kazançları üzerindeki vergiler 1300 Diğer

Sosyal güvenlik katkıları (SSC) 2100 Çalışan SSC 2200 İşveren SSC

Serbest çalışan ve istihdam edilmeyen SSC 2400 Diğer SSC

Ücret ve işgücü kazançları üzerindeki vergiler

SERVET VERGİLERİ

Taşınmaz mallar üzerindeki sürekli vergiler

Net servet üzerindeki süreklli vergiler

Veraset ve intikal vergisi

Mali işlemler ve sermaye işlemleri vergisi

Sürekli olmayan diğer servet vergileri

Diğer servet vergileri

TÜKETİM VERGİLERİ

Üretim, satış ve transferler üzerindeki vergiler

Mal ve hizmetler üzerindeki genel vergiler (KDV, Satış vs.)

Özel mal ve hizmetler üzerindeki vergiler (Dış ticaret, gümrük vs.)

5110 ve 5120’e girmeyen diğer tüketim vergiler

Mal kullanımı ve performans faaliyetleri üzerindeki vergiler

5100 ve 5200’e girmeyen diğer vergiler

1000, 2000, 3000, 4000 ve 5000 dışındaki diğer vergiler

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