Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamalarının Makro Ekonomik Etkileri

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için savunma harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, cari işlemler dengesi, ithalat ve istihdam gibi makro büyüklükler üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Söz konusu ilişki 1980-2016 dönemi üzerinden yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Granger ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda savunma harcamalarının enflasyon, cari işlemler dengesi ve ithalat üzerinde etkili olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Aynı testlerin uygulandığı önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, bu makalede cari işlemler dengesinden GSYİH'e ve savunma harcamalarına nedensellik belirlenmiştir. Kanıtlar Türkiye ekonomisinde savunma harcamalarının makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerinde etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Savunma Harcamaları, Makroekonomik büyüklükler, Yapısal Kırılma Testi, Nedensellik Analizi

Macroeconomic Effects of Defense Expenditures in Turkey

In this study, the effects of defense expenditure on the macroeconomic majorities of Turkey such as economic growth, inflation, current account balance, import and employment have been investigated. The relation in question has been analysed over the period between 1980-2016 by structural breaks unit root test, causality tests of Toda-Yamamoto and Granger. As a result of this study, it has been detected that defense expenditures are effective on inflation, current account balance and import. Unlike previous studies which same tests were applied, causality from current account balance and GDP to defense expenditures was determined in this article. Evidence has shown that, for Turkish economy, defense expenditures are effective on macroeconomics variables.

Keywords:

Defense Expenditures Macroeconomic magnitudes, Turkish Economy, Structural Break Test, Causality Analysis,

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ISSN: 1303-6831
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2002
Yayıncı: Milli Savunma Üniversitesi Alparslan Savunma Bilimleri ve Millî Güvenlik Enstitüsü