Optimal Savunma Harcaması Var mıdır? Türkiye Üzerinde Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Bu çalışmanın amacı; savunma harcamaları ilebüyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını, optimalsavunma harcaması oranın ne olduğunu ve Türkiye’nin 1990-2017 yıllarıarasındaki savunma harcamalarının optimal olup olmadığını analiz etmektir.Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak ekonomik büyüme oranı, bağımsız değişkenlerolarak da yıllık savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı ile yıllıkişsizlik oranları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’ye ait 1990-2017 döneminverileri zaman serisi analizi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu verilerdenmilli gelir büyüme oranı ile işsizlik verileri Dünya Bankası veri tabanından,savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı da SIPRI veri tabanındanalınmıştır. Çalışma neticesinde; Türkiye’de Armey Eğrisi’nin geçerli olduğu,bir başka ifadeyle savunma harcamaları ile büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklindebir ilişkinin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye’de savunma harcamalarının milligelir içindeki optimal değeri ise %2,5 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin2010 yılı sonrası yıllık savunma harcamaları göz önüne alındığında; yapılan harcamaların %2,5’lik oranın altında olduğu görülmektedir.Buradan hareketle, savunma harcamalarının %2,5 oranına kadar artırılmasıyla,milli gelirin de artırılabileceğini ifade etmek mümkündür. Savunma sanayininimalat sanayi içinde lokomotif pozisyonu göz önüne alındığında; yapılan budeğerlendirme gerek Kaldor’un birinci yasasıyla gerekse alanda savunmaharcamalarının büyüme üzerinde pozitif yönlü etkisini gözlemleyen çalışmalarlatutarlıdır.

Does the Optimal Size of Defense Expenditure Exist? An Empirical Study on Turkey

The purpose of this study was to analyze whether an “inverted U” shaperelationship between economic growth and defense expenditure or not, what theoptimal ratio of defense expenditure for Turkey is, and whether Turkey’sdefense expenditure in the period of 1990-2017 was optimal. The dependentvariable of the study was the ratio of yearly economic growth, and independentvariables were the ratio of defense expenditure in GDP and yearly unemploymentrate respectively. Data which covered 1990-2017 period regarding Turkey wasanalyzed by using Time Series Analysis with FMOLS method. Economic growth andunemployment series were acquired from the Worldbank, while defense expenditurewas from SIPRI data bank. According to the results; we have concluded that thereis an “inverted U” shape the relationship between economic growth and defenseexpenditure. In other words, Armey Curve exists for Turkey. Also, we haveobserved the ratio of defense expenditure as 2.5% of the GDP. The defenseexpenditure of Turkey from 2010 is under this value of 2.5%. Considering thispoint; it can be put forward that Turkey may increase its defense expenditureup to 2.5% of the GDP to provide economic growth. Taking into account of theleading position and also the importance of the defense industry in themanufacturing industry, this evaluation is supported not only with the firstlaw of Kaldor but also studies which propose that defense expenditure haspositive effects on the economic growth as well.

Kaynakça

References

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