Optimal Savunma Harcaması Var mıdır? Türkiye Üzerinde Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Bu çalışmanın amacı; savunma harcamaları ile büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını, optimal savunma harcaması oranın ne olduğunu ve Türkiye’nin 1990-2017 yılları arasındaki savunma harcamalarının optimal olup olmadığını analiz etmektir. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak ekonomik büyüme oranı, bağımsız değişkenler olarak da yıllık savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı ile yıllık işsizlik oranları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’ye ait 1990-2017 dönemin verileri zaman serisi analizi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu verilerden milli gelir büyüme oranı ile işsizlik verileri Dünya Bankası veri tabanından, savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı da SIPRI veri tabanından alınmıştır. Çalışma neticesinde; Türkiye’de Armey Eğrisi’nin geçerli olduğu, bir başka ifadeyle savunma harcamaları ile büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde bir ilişkinin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye’de savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki optimal değeri ise %2,5 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin 2010 yılı sonrası yıllık savunma harcamaları göz önüne alındığında; yapılan harcamaların %2,5’lik oranın altında olduğu görülmektedir. Buradan hareketle, savunma harcamalarının %2,5 oranına kadar artırılmasıyla, milli gelirin de artırılabileceğini ifade etmek mümkündür. Savunma sanayinin imalat sanayi içinde lokomotif pozisyonu göz önüne alındığında; yapılan bu değerlendirme gerek Kaldor’un birinci yasasıyla gerekse alanda savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerinde pozitif yönlü etkisini gözlemleyen çalışmalarla tutarlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Savunma Harcaması, İktisadi Büyüme, Armey Eğrisi, Zaman Serisi Analizi (FMOLS Method)

Does the Optimal Size of Defense Expenditure Exist? An Empirical Study on Turkey

The purpose of this study was to analyze whether an “inverted U” shape relationship between economic growth and defense expenditure or not, what the optimal ratio of defense expenditure for Turkey is, and whether Turkey’s defense expenditure in the period of 1990-2017 was optimal. The dependent variable of the study was the ratio of yearly economic growth, and independent variables were the ratio of defense expenditure in GDP and yearly unemployment rate respectively. Data which covered 1990-2017 period regarding Turkey was analyzed by using Time Series Analysis with FMOLS method. Economic growth and unemployment series were acquired from the Worldbank, while defense expenditure was from SIPRI data bank. According to the results; we have concluded that there is an “inverted U” shape the relationship between economic growth and defense expenditure. In other words, Armey Curve exists for Turkey. Also, we have observed the ratio of defense expenditure as 2.5% of the GDP. The defense expenditure of Turkey from 2010 is under this value of 2.5%. Considering this point; it can be put forward that Turkey may increase its defense expenditure up to 2.5% of the GDP to provide economic growth. Taking into account of the leading position and also the importance of the defense industry in the manufacturing industry, this evaluation is supported not only with the first law of Kaldor but also studies which propose that defense expenditure has positive effects on the economic growth as well.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Defense Expenditure, Armey Curve, Time Series Analysis (FMOLS Method),

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ISSN: 1303-6831
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2002
Yayıncı: Milli Savunma Üniversitesi Alparslan Savunma Bilimleri ve Millî Güvenlik Enstitüsü