Abdullah AÇIK, Halil Hüseyin İshak KESİKTAŞ, Sadık Özlen BAŞER

Gemi Sahiplerinin Filo Kapasitesi Ayarlama Kararlarında Faiz Oranlarının Rolü

Bu çalışmanın amacı reel faiz oranının küresel filo ayarlama sürecine olan etkisini yeni siparişleri ve hurdaya gönderimleri modelleyerek ampirik olarak test etmektir. Kullanılan veri seti 1985 ve 2018 yılları arasını kapsamaktadır ve yıllık bazda 34 gözlemden oluşmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre navlun oranı yeni gemi sipariş miktarını pozitif ve söküme gönderilen gemi miktarını negatif etkilerken reel faiz oranı hem yeni sipariş miktarını hem de söküme gönderilen gemi miktarını negatif olarak etkilemektedir. Navlun oranının yeni siparişlerde ve söküme gönderimlerde etkisi açık iken faiz oranının negatif etkisi iki şekilde açıklanabilir. Yükselen faiz oranı nedeniyle artan sermaye maliyetleri yeni gemi siparişlerinin daha pahalı olmasına neden olduğu için yeni siparişlerde ve söküme gönderimlerde azalışa neden oluyor olabilir. İkinci nedeni ise gemi yatırımcılarının sermayelerini daha fazla gelir elde etmek için yeni gemi sipariş etmek yerine yüksek faiz oranlarında değerlendirmeleriyle ilgili olabilir. Bu nedenle, deniz taşımacılığı sektörünün sürdürülebilir maliyetlerle ticareti kolaylaştırarak ekonomik büyümeye katkı sunabilmesi için yüksek faiz oranlarının negatif etkisinin çeşitli politikalarla sınırlandırılması önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Faiz Oranı, Gemi Yatırımı, Gemi Hurdası

Role of Interest Rates on Fleet Capacity Adjustment Decisions of Shipowners

The aim of this study is to empirically examine the impact of real interest rate on global fleet adjustment processes by modelling new orders and demolitions. The data set used consists of 34 annual observations and covers the years between 1985 and 2018. According to the results, the freight rate has a positive impact on amount of new ship orders and a negative impact on amount of ships scrapped, while the real interest rate has a negative impact on both amount of new ship orders and ships scrapped. The impact of freight rate on new ship orders and demolitions is clear whereas the impact of the real interest rate may be explained by two reasons. Increasing capital costs due to increasing interest rates may cause decrease in both new orders and demolitions as ordering new ships becomes more expensive. The second one may be related to expectations of ship investors to gain more revenue by evaluating their capitals on higher interest rates instead of ordering new ships. Therefore, it is important to limit negative impact of high interest rates by various policies so that maritime transport sector can contribute to economic growth by facilitating trade with sustainable costs.

Keywords:

Interest Rate, Ship Investment, Demolition,

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