DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARIN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACATI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME

İhracat gelişmekte olan ülkelerin büyüme ve kalkınma hedefine ulaşmasında önemli bir faktör olarak kabul edilmektedir. Fakat gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ihracat performansı o ülkelerde yapılacak yatırımlara bağlıdır. Bu ülkelerde yatırım için gerekli sermaye yeterli olmadığından DYY'ler yatırım için ihtiyaç duyulan sermayeye ulaşmanın bir yolu olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı da DYY'nin ihracat üzerindeki etkisini Türkiye örneğinde ortaya koymaktır. Daha tutarlı bir ekonometrik model için bağımsız değişken olarak DYY ile birlikte sanayi üretim endeksi, yurt içi üretici fiyat endeksi, üfe bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru ve yurt içi ticari kredi faiz oranları da modele tanımlanmıştır. Ampirik analiz 2005/1-2018/7 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Veriler Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımıyla test edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular uzun ve kısa dönem analizinde DYY girişlerinin ihracat üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

DYY, İhracat, Eşbütünleşme, ARDL

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON EXPORT OF TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Export is considered as an important factor in achieving the growth and development target of developing countries. However, the export performance of developing countries depends on the investments which are made in those countries. FDI is seen as a way of reaching the capital needed for investment, since the capital required for investment in these countries is not sufficient.Export is an important factor in the growth and development tagets of the developing countries. However, the export performance of developing countries depends on the investments to be made in those country. FDI is seen as a way of reaching the capital needed for investment in these countries since the capital required for investment is not sufficient. The main purpose of this study is to reveal the effect of foreign direct investments on exports in case of Turkey. For a more consistent econometric model, industrial production index, producer price index, real exchange rate and commercial loan interest rates are defined in addition to foreign direct investments. The empirical analysis was performed using the monthly data for the period 2005 / 1-2018 / 7. The data are obtained from Central Bank of Turkey and Turkey Statistical Institute were tested with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) border test approach. The empirical findings showed that the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on exports was positive and statistically significant on long term and short term analysis.

Kaynakça

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