Makroekonomik İstikrarın ve İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: G-20 Ülkeleri İçin Bir Panel Veri Analizi 1994-2015

Bu çalışmada, iç ve dış denge koşullarını bir arada gözeten temel makroekonomik göstergelerden türetilen makroekonomik istikrar/istikrarsızlık endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, G-20 üyesi ülkeler üzerinde 1994-2015 dönemi için ekonometrik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmada, makroekonomik istikrarın/istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin daha tutarlı bir şekilde incelenebilmesi için G-20 ülkeleri ekonomik açıdan gelişmiş G-9 ve gelişmekte olan G-10 ülkeleri olarak iki alt grupta analize dâhil edilmişlerdir. Çalışma sonucunda, inceleme döneminde iç ve dış denge şartlarını bir arada gözeten makroekonomik istikrar/istikrarsızlık endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin G-9 ve G-10 gruplarında sırasıyla pozitif/negatif yönlü olduğu ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışmada G-9 ve G-10 grubundaki ülkelerin, uzun vadeli ekonomik büyüme performanslarının ve ekonomik açıdan gelişmişlik düzeylerinin farklılaşmasında fiziksel-beşeri sermaye birikiminin ve dış dünyayla bütünleşme derecelerinin yanında makroekonomik açıdan sırasıyla istikrarlı ve istikrarsız bir yapıya sahip olmalarının daha fazla etkili olduğu belirlenmiştir.

The Effects of Macroeconomic Stability and Instability on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for The G-20 Countries 1994-2015

In this study, the effects of macroeconomic stability/instability index derived from basic macroeconomic indicators which observe internal and external equilibrium conditions together on economic growth is examined by econometric method for the period of 1994- 2015 on the G-20 member countries. In the study, the G-20 countries were included in two sub-groups as economically developed G-9 and developing G-10 countries to examine more consistently the effects of macroeconomic stability/instability on economic growth. As a result of the study, it was determined that the effects of the macroeconomic stability / instability index, which considers the internal and external equilibrium conditions in the examination period, on the economic growth were positive / negative in the G-9 and G10 groups respectively and statistically significant. Additionally in the study, It has been determined that the countries in the G-9 and G-10 groups have a more stable and unstable macroeconomic structure in addition to the accumulation of physical-human capital accumulation and external world integration in the differentiation of long-term economic growth performance and economic development level.

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