2008 REFORMU SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞE KATKI YAPIYOR MU?

Finansal sürdürülebilirliğe dair önemli kaygılardan dolayı Türkiye sosyal güvenlik sisteminde reforma gitmiştir. Bu sürecin son aşaması 2008’de gerçekleşmiş ve bağlama oranıyla prim oranında değişimleri içermiştir. Bu çalışma parametre değişikliklerinin sistemin finansal sürdürülebilirliğine ve tüketicilere etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analiz, bağlama oranı ve prim oranı değişikliklerine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışma, parametre değişikliklerinin ardışık nesiller modeli ile niceliksel analizini yaparak literatüre katkı yapmaktadır. Yapılan analiz bağlama ve prim oranlarının eş anlı düşürülmesinin bir reform tasarım hatası olduğunu ve bunun sistemin açıklarının kötüleşmesine etkisi olacağını işaret etmektedir. Tüketici üzerindeki etkilere dair temel bulgu ise, reform anında emekliliğe daha yakın olan çalışmaktaki bireylerin reformdan en olumsuz etkilenenler olduğu yönündedir. 

DOES THE 2008 REFORM CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINABILITY

Due to considerable financial sustainability concerns, Turkey has reformed her social security system. The last leg of this reform process took place in 2008 and included changes in replacement and contribution rates. This paper aims to analyse the impact of the parameter changes on financial sustainability of the system and the consumer well-being. Focus of the analysis is on the changes in the replacement rates and the contribution rates. The paper contributes by providing a complex quantitative analysis of the parameter changes through an OLG (overlapping generations) model. It is found that the simultaneous reduction of replacement and contribution rates is a reform design flaw and actually worsens the deficits of the system. One other finding is that the closer a person is to retirement at the time of the reform, the worse the impact of the reform is on the person.

Kaynakça

Alper, Y. (2011). Sosyal güvenliğin reformu ve finansmanla ilgili beklentiler. Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 1, 7–47.

Alper, Y. (2015). Sosyal güvenlik reformu (2008-2016): Kapsamla ilgili gelişmeler. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 68, 1–23.

Alper, Y., Değer, Ç. and Sayan, S. (2012). 2050’ye doğru nüfusbilim ve yönetim: Sosyal güvenlik (emeklilik) sistemine bakış. TUSIAD Yayın No TUSIAD-T/20120-11/535, TUSIAD.

Alper, Y., İmrohoroğlu, S. and Sayan, S. (2004). Türk emeklilik sisteminde reform: Mevcut durum ve alternatif stratejiler. TUSIAD Yayın No TUSIAD-T/2004-11/382, TUSIAD.

Auerbach, A. J. and Kotlikoff, J. (1987). Dynamic fiscal policy, Cambridge University Press.

Bouzahzah, M., De la Croix, D. and Docquier, F. (2002). Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 2093-2113. DOI: 10.1016/S0165-1889(01)00023-9

Cilasun, M. S. (2009). Income, consumption and saving behaviour of Turkish households. Phd, Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Social Sciences.

De Nardi, M., İmrohoroğlu, S. and Sargent, T. J. (1999). Projected U.S. demographics and social security. Review of Economic Dynamics, 2(3), 575 – 615. DOI: 10.1006/redy.1999.0067

Deaton, A. (1985). Panel data from time series of cross-sections. Journal of Econometrics, 30. (1-2), 109 – 126. DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(85)90134-4

Değer, Ç. (2011). An overlapping generations analysis of social security reform in Turkey, Phd, Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Social Sciences.

Diamond, P. A. (1965). National debt in a neoclassical growth model. American Economic Review, 55(5), 1126–1150.

Dimitriou, D., Kenourgios, D. and Simos, T. (2013). Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: a multivariate FIAPARCH–DCC approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 30, 46-56. DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.05.008

Dooley, M and Hutchison, M. (2009). Transmission of the U.S. sub-prime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(8), 1331-1349. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2009.08.004

Eren, O. and İleri, S. G. (2015). Government subsidized individual retirement system. Technical Report 15–20, TCMB.

Erten, H. (2009). Türkiye için sosyal hesaplar matrisi üretme yöntemi ve istihdam üzerine bir hesaplanabilir genel denge modeli uygulaması. Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı Uzmanlık Tezi No 2805.

Fehr, H. and Jess, H. (2007). Who benefits from the reform of pension taxation in Germany. Fiscal Studies, 28(1), 73–101. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2007.00048.x|

Ferreira, S. G. (2005). Pension reform in Brazil: Transitional issues in a model with endogenous labour supply. Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 26(1), 127–153. DOI: 10.12660/bre.v26n12006.2500

Fitzenberger, B. and G. Wunderlich (2002): “Gender wage differences in West Germany: A cohort analysis,” German Economic Review, 3, 379–414.

Fuster, L., İmrohoroğlu, A., and İmrohoroğlu, S. (2007). Elimination of social security in a dynastic framework. The Review of Economic Studies, 74(1), 113–145. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00416.x

Kenç, T. and Sayan, S. (2001) Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis. Journal of Policy Modelling, 23(6), 677–702. DOI: 10.1016/S0161-8938(01)00082-5

Köksal, B. and Orhan, M. (2013). Market risk of developed and emerging countries during the global financial crisis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 49(3): 20-34, DOI: 10.2753/REE1540-496X490302

Legendre, B. (2010). Pensions and heterogeneity in an overlapping generations model (OLG). LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1324, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

Magnani, R. (2011). A general equilibrium evaluation of the sustainability of the new pension reforms in Italy. Research in Economics, 65(1), 5–35. DOI: .1016/j.rie.2010.02.001

Mensi, W., Hammoudeh S., Nguyen, D.K. and Kang, S.H. (2016). Global financial crisis and spillover effects among the U.S. and BRICS stock markets. International Review of Economics and Finance. 42: 257-276. DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.11.005

Naude,W. (2009). Fallacies about the global financial crisis harms recovery in the poorest countries. CESifo Forum, 10(4), 3–12.

Rojas, J. A. (2005). Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration. Journal of Public Economics, 89(2-3), 465 – 485. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.04.003

Samuelson, P. A. (1958). An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money. Journal of Political Economy, 66(6), 467– 82. DOI: 10.1086/258100

Sayan, S. and Kiraci, A. (2001). Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 8(2), 89–93. DOI: 10.1080/13504850150204129

Telli, Ç. (2005): Sosyal hesaplar matrisi üretme yöntemi ve Türkiye uygulaması. Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı Uzmanlık Tezi.

Tuncay, A. T. and Kiraci, A. (2002). Simulation of benefits and risks after the planned privatization of the pension system in Turkey: Is the expected boost to financial markets feasible. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 38(5), 23–45.

Tuncay, C. and Alper, Y. (1997). Türk sosyal güvenlik sisteminde yeniden yapılanma: Sorunlar, reform ihtiyacı, arayışlar, çözüm önerileri. TUSIAD Yayın No TUSIAD-T/97-10/217, TUSIAD.

Yeyati, E.L. and Williams, T. (2012). Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decouplingand financial recoupling. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(8), 2102-2126. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.005