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KUR KRİZLERİ TANIMI VE TÜRKİYE 2006-2018 DÖNEMİ KUR KRİZLERİ

Ekonomistler arasında kur krizi vakasının tanımı konusunda, kesin bir görüş birliği sağlanamamıştır. Ancak kur krizi, literatürde genel tanım olarak; nominal kur, reel kur, döviz rezervleri, faiz, enflasyon gibi değişkenlerden oluşturulan bir endeks değerinin geçmiş trende bağlı belirlenen bir eşik değerden büyük bir oranda sapması olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışmada, literatür kapsamında kur krizi tanımları karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca başarılı ve başarısız spekülatif kur ataklarını da dikkate alan Kur Piyasa Baskı Endeksi (Exchange Market Pressure Index: EMPI) kapsamında Türkiye 2006Q1-2018Q4 verileri, 10 farklı EMPI hesaplanarak kur krizi vakaları tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Türkiye ekonomisinin 2006Q1-2018Q4 arasındaki 54 çeyreklik dönemde 10 farklı kur krizi tanımından en az birine giren 8 kur krizi dönemi tespit edilmiştir. Bu 10 farklı kur krizi tanımının tamamında tespit edilen kur krizi ise, 2018Q3 döneminde gerçekleşmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kur krizleri, kur kırılmaları

CURRENCY CRISIS AND TURKEY: 2006-2018 TERM

An absolute definition union has not been achieved yet among economists about the concept of exchange rate crisis. However, general description in the literature can be expressed as deviation of an index value which is created by variables such as nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, interest and inflation from a threshold determined regarding past trend. In this study, a comparative analysis by the scope of the definition of currency crisis has been conducted and currency crisis definition which is specific to Turkey's economy has been proposed. In addition, 10 different currency crisis occurences are contained examining the Exchange Market Pressure Index: EMPI data which considers successful and unsuccessful speculative currency attacks and using data of Turkey for 2006Q1-2018Q4 period and by calculation of 10 different EMPI index. According to the findings of the analysis 4 currency crisis are contained which includes at least 1 of 10 different currency crisis definition for Turkey regarding 2006Q1-2018Q4 period which comprises 54 quarterly data. The currency crisis which suits all 10 different currency crisis definitions occurred in 2018Q3.

Keywords:

Currency Crises Currency Crashes, Currency Crises Measures,

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