COVID-19 PANDEMİSİNİN TÜRKİYE'DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE SEKTÖR-SPESİFİK ETKİLERİ: VAR ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomideki sektörlerin pandemi sürecinde nasıl etkilendiği ve sektörler arasındaki etkileşimin nasıl olduğunu araştırmaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Covid-19 pandemisinin oluşturduğu şokların sektörleri nasıl etkilediği VAR analizi yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada 2015 M:1- 2020 M:5 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak sanayi üretim endeksi, imalat sanayi kapasite kullanım oranı, inşaat sektörü maliyet endeksi, perakende ticaret ve hizmet sektörü, istihdam oranı, ihracat ve ithalat sektörü endeksi verileri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Covid-19 pandemisi kapsamında incelenen dönem süresince sektörler arasında negatif bir şoka en geç tepki veren sektörün inşaat sektörü olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sanayi sektörü, perakende ticaret ve hizmet sektörü ile imalat sektörünün ise olası şoklara en hızlı tepki veren sektörler arasında olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Covid-19, Pandemi, Ekonomik Büyüme, VAR Analizi, Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonları

THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE SECTOR-SPECIFIC AND INTER-SECTORAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of the pandemic on the sector-specific and inter-sectoral in Turkey. For this purpose, how the shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic affect the sectors were examined with the VAR analysis. In this study, industrial production index, manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate, construction sector cost index, retail trade and service sector, employment rate, EXP, and import sector index were analyzed using the monthly data period of 2015 M:1- 2020 M:5. As a result of the study, it was determined that the sector which responded the slowest to a negative shock among the sectors during the period examined of the Covid-19 pandemic was the construction sector. It has been found that the industrial sector, retail trade and service sector, and the manufacturing sector are among the sectors that respond most rapidly to possible shocks.

Keywords:

Covid-19 Pandemic, Economic Growth, VAR Analysis, Impact-Response Functions,

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