Determining The Country-Specific Variables Affecting The Market Value of Turkish Eurobonds: NARDL Approach

Bu çalışmanın amacı, TC Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı tarafından ihraç edilen avrovillerin piyasa değerini etkileyen ülkeye özgü değişkenleri belirlemektir. Çalışma Ocak 2012’den Haziran 2020’ye kadar olan dönemi kapsamaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı doğrultusunda, 102 aylık zaman serisi verileri NARDL modeli ile analiz edilmektedir. Modele uygun olarak, bağımsız değişkenler pozitif ve negatif şoklarına ayrıştırılmaktadır ve elde edilen bu bileşenler modele eklenmektedir. Böylece anlamlı bir asimetrik eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı araştırılmaktadır. Bulgulara göre, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde kredi temerrüt takasının negatif ve pozitif şokları Türk avrovillerinin piyasa değerini anlamlı şekilde etkilemektedir, ancak negatif şokun etkisi daha fazladır. Ek olarak, kısa dönemde toplam uluslararası rezervlerin negatif şoku, uzun dönemde ise cari işlemler hesabının negatif şoku Türk avrovillerinin piyasa değerini anlamlı şekilde etkilemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Avrovil, Kredi Temerrüt Takası, Asimetrik İlişki, NARDL

Determining The Country-Specific Variables Affecting The Market Value of Turkish Eurobonds: NARDL Approach

This study aims to determine the country-specific variables influencing the market value of eurobonds issued by the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance. The study covers the period from January 2012 to June 2020. For the study, the 102-month time series are analysed with the NARDL model. Parallel to the model, independent variables are decomposed into positive and negative shocks and these components are added to the model. Thus, the existence of a significant asymmetric cointegration relationship is investigated. According to the findings, the negative and positive shocks of credit default swap in both the short and long term significantly affect the Turkish eurobond market value, but the negative shock has a greater impact. In addition, the negative shock of total international reserves in the short term and the negative shock of the current account in the long term significantly affect the Turkish eurobond market value.

Keywords:

Eurobond, Credit Default Swap, Asymmetric Relationship, NARDL,

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