Taner SEKMEN, Esra DOĞAN, Seher Gülşah TOPUZ

Türkiye’de Kamu İç Borcunun Finansal Gelişme Üzerindeki Dışlama Etkisi

Finansal gelişmenin başta ekonomik büyüme olmak üzere birçok makroekonomik değişken üzerindeki etkisi yoğun bir şekilde araştırılmış olmasına rağmen finansal gelişmenin belirleyicilerine ilişkin ampirik kanıtlar oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin kamu iç borcunun finansal gelişme üzerinde herhangi anlamlı bir etkisinin olup olmadığını sorgulamaktadır. 1980 ve 2017 döneminde kamu iç borçlanmasının finansal gelişme üzerindeki etkisine dair tahminler Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) model kullanılarak elde edilmektedir. Finansal gelişmeyi temsil etmek amacıyla finansal gelişme literatüründe yoğun bir şekilde tercih edilen bireysel değişkenlerin aksine, bu çalışmada bu değişkenlerin çoğunu içeren bir finansal gelişme endeksi tercih edilmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları teorik beklentilerin aksine kamu iç borcunun finansal gelişmeyi pozitif etkilediğine dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu bulgular teori kapsamında değerlendirildiğinde bankaların devlet tahvili tutma yönündeki davranışlarının finansal gelişme sürecinde bir dışlama etkisine yol açmayacağı ifade edilebilir. Tersine bu bulgular kamu iç borçlarındaki artışlar ve dolayısıyla tahvil piyasasındaki derinleşmenin diğer finansal piyasaların gelişmesinde pozitif dışsallıklar ortaya çıkarmış olabileceği şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dışlama Etkisi, Finansal Gelişme, Kamu İç Borcu

The Crowding Out Effect of Domestic Public Debt on Financial Development in Turkey

Although the impact of financial development on many macroeconomic variables, particularly economic growth, has been extensively studied, empirical evidence on the determinants of financial development is very limited. This study investigates whether or not there is a significant impact of the domestic public debt on the financial development for Turkey. Estimations of the effect of public domestic borrowing on financial development for the period of 1980 to 2017 are obtained by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Unlike individual variables, which are highly preferred in the financial development literature in order to represent financial development, a financial development index including most of these variables is preferred in this study. The findings of the study provide evidence that domestic public debt positively affects financial development contrary to theoretical expectations. When these findings are evaluated within the scope of the theory, it can be stated that the behaviors of banks to hold government bonds will not lead to an crowding out effect in the financial development process. On the contrary, these findings can be interpreted as the increase in domestic public debt and hence the deepening of the bond market may have caused positive externalities in the development of other financial markets.

Keywords:

Crowding-out Effect, Financial Development, Domestic Public Debt,

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