TÜRKİYE'DE İMALAT SANAYİ İHRACATI VE BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNİN İKTİSADİ ANALİZİ

Türkiye, İstikrar Programı çerçevesinde alınan karar ile ihracata dayalı sanayileşme politikası benimsemiştir. Söz konusu politikanın yarattığı olumlu gelişmeler sonucu, Türkiye’nin ihracat hacminde önemli düzeyde artışlar gerçekleşmiş ve ihracat ürün kompozisyonu değişikliğe uğramıştır. Bu değişime en büyük katkı ise ekonomik yapı içerisindeki en önemli sanayi dallarından biri olan imalat sanayi ihracat kaleminde yaşanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1994-2009 dönemi için üç aylık verileri kullanarak Türkiye’de ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini test etmektir. Çalışmada ihracat yerine Türkiye’nin küresel ekonomiyle bağını kuran ve lokomotif sektörü olan imalat sanayi ihracatı kullanılmaktadır. Granger nedensellik testine göre çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi; Hausman testine göre de eşanlı ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilen bu makro ekonomik değişkenlere eşanlı denklem sistemlerinden üç aşamalı enküçük karaler yöntemi (3AEKK) uygulanmıştır. 3AEKK yöntemine göre, imalat sanayi ihracatından büyümeye ve büyümeden de imalat sanayi ihracatına doğru eşanlı ilişkinin var olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İmalat Sanayi, İhracata Dayalı Büyüme, Eşanlı Denklem Sistemi, Hausman Testi, Üç Aşamalı En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi

TÜRKİYE'DE İMALAT SANAYİ İHRACATI VE BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNİN İKTİSADİ ANALİZİ / ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Turkey has adopted export-led industrialization policy with the decision taken within the framework of the Stabilization Program. As a result of positive developments created by this policy significant increases in Turkey’s export volume has been achieved and the composition of export products has changed. The biggest contribution to this change has been experienced in export item of manufacturing industry which is one of the most important industrial sectors in the economic structure. The aim of this study is to analyze the export-led growth in Turkey hypothesis by using quarterly data for period 1994-2009. In this study, manufacturing industry export refers to the term export which is the leading sector that establishes links between Turkish economy and the global economy. Of the simultaneous equation systems, three stage least square estimates (3SLS) method was applied to these macro-economic variables which demostrated the existence of simultaneous correlation in Hausmann test. Consequently, using 3SLS methods simultaneous correlation was found between growth and manufacturing industry and vice versa.

Keywords:

Manufacturing Industry, Export-led Growth, Simultaneous Equation System, Hausmann Test, The Three-Stage Least Squares Method.,

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