Türkiye ile Asya ve Pasifik Ekonomik İşbirliği (APEC) Ülkeleri Arasındaki Dış Ticaretin Çekim Modeli ile İncelenmesi

Asya ve Pasifik Ekonomik İşbirliği’ne (APEC) üye olan ülkeler dünya dış ticaret akımlarının önemli bir bölümünü oluşturmaktadır. APEC'in günümüzde dış ticaretten aldığı payın büyüklüğü ve ilerleyen yıllarda da uluslararası ticarette sahip olduğu payı arttırma potansiyelinin olması nedeniyle, Türkiye'nin bu ekonomik gruba üye olan ülkeler ile yaptığı ticaretin, gelecekte daha da önem kazanacağı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye'nin APEC üyesi 21 ülke ile 1997-2016 yılları arasındaki dış ticaretini hangi faktörlerin etkilediğini, panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanarak ve çekim modelini temel alarak incelemek ve bu süreçte ülkelerin dış ticaretinde meydana gelen değişiklikleri açıklamak ve yorumlamaktır. Bu sayede; Türkiye ve APEC ülkeleri arasındaki uluslararası ticareti etkileyen faktörler belirlenmiş ve değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmada, Türkiye ve APEC üyesi ülkelerin toplam dış ticaret hacmi bağımlı değişken olarak; dış ticaret hacminin GSYİH'ye oranı, ihracat, ithalat, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) farkı, kişi başına düşen gayrı safi yurtiçi hasıla (KBGSYİH) farkı, nüfus, Linder etkisi, göreceli faktör donanımı, uzaklık ve yüz ölçümü bağımsız değişken olarak; G-20 üyeliği, G-8 üyeliği, OECD (İktisadi İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü) üyeliği, serbest ticaret anlaşmaları ve vize değişkenleri kukla değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Kurulan 7 model ile yapılan analizler sonucunda; dış ticaret hacmi / GSYİH, ihracat, ithalat, Linder etkisi, göreceli faktör donanımı ve G-20 üyeliği değişkenlerinin Türkiye – APEC ülkeleri arasındaki dış ticaret hacmini olumlu yönde etkilediği; GSYİH farkı ve OECD üyeliği ve vize değişkenlerinin ise dış ticaret hacmini olumsuz yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca; KBGSYİH farkı, uzaklık, nüfus, yüz ölçümü, G-8 üyeliği, kriz, serbest ticaret anlaşmaları değişkenleri ile Türkiye ve APEC ülkeleri arasındaki dış ticaret hacmi değişkeni arasında anlamlı bir ilişkinin bulunmadığı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

APEC, Türkiye, Uluslararası Ticaret, İthalat, İhracat, Çekim Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi

Investigation of Foreign Trade between Turkey and Member Countries of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) with Gravity Model

Member countries of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) constitute an important part of World foreign trade flows. Because of the share’s size that APEC takes from foreign trade and its potential of increasing the share it has in the upcoming years, it seems that Turkey’s trade with member countries of APEC will gain more importance in the future. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors that influence Turkey’s trade with 21 member countries of APEC between the years of 1997-2016 using panel data analysis method and basing upon gravity model and to explain and interpret the changes occur in the foreign trade of these countries within this period. Thus the factors influencing the international trade between APEC countries and Turkey have been determined and evaluated. In this study, total foreign trade volume of Turkey and member countries of APEC is used as dependent variable; the ratio of foreign trade volume to GDP, export, import, gross domestic product (GDP) difference, GDP per capita difference, population, Linder effect, relative factor endowment, distance and acreage are used as independent variable; G20 membership, G8 membership, OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) membership, free trade agreements, crisis and visa variables are used as dummy variable. In the consequence of analyses made with 7 model set up in this study, it has been concluded that variables of foreign trade volume / GDP, export, import, Linder effect, relative factor endowment and G20 membership influence the foreign trade volume between Turkey – APEC countries positively and variables of GDP difference, OECD membership and visa variables influence foreign trade volume negatively. It has been determined that there is no significant relationship between variables of GDP per capita difference, distance, population, acreage, G8membership, crisis, free trade agreements and variable of foreign trade volume between Turkey-APEC countries.

Keywords:

APEC, Turkey, International Trade, Import, Export, Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis,

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