Enflasyonun Dinamikleri Değişti mi? Gelişmiş Ülkeler için Bulgular

Son yıllarda yoğun olarak tartışılan Enflasyonun Küreselleşmesi Hipotezi, ülkeler diğer ülkelerle entegre oldukça enflasyonun belirlenmesinde küresel faktörlerin yerli faktörlere göre baskın hale geldiğini savunmaktadır. Bu çalışma, 26 gelişmiş ülke için 1985-2017 dönemini kapsayan bir panel veri kullanılarak bu hipotezin gelişmiş ülkelerde geçerli olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Farklı dönemler için Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu yöntemi ile tahmin edilen Genişletilmiş Phillips denklemlerinden elde edilen bulgular, yabancı çıktı açığının gelişmiş ülkelerin enflasyonu üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, yabancı çıktı açığı yerine yerli çıktı açığı artan küreselleşme süreci sonrasında da gelişmiş ülkelerin enflasyon dinamiklerinde önemli rol oynamaktadır. Diğer yandan, ülkelerin artan şekilde ithalata maruz kalması ve üretimin dünya çağında küreselleşmesi ile tutarlı olarak, ithalat fiyatlarının küreselleşme sonrası dönemde gelişmiş ülkelerin enflasyonunda ciddi etkisinin olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enflasyon, Küreselleşme, Panel Veri

Has the Dynamics of Inflation Changed? Evidence from Advanced Countries

Globalization of Inflation hypothesis which is intensively discussed in the past decades mainly suggests that global factors have become dominant over domestic factors for the determination of inflation as economies become more open. This paper investigates whether this hypothesis holds for industrial countries using a panel data for 26 advanced countries over 1985-2017 period. Generalized Method of Moments estimates of augmented Phillips equations for different periods reveal that world output gap’s effect on industrial countries’ inflation rates is not statistically significant. According to the findings, domestic output gap rather than foreign output gap plays a significant role on the dynamics of inflation of advanced economies as the extent of globalization rises. Additionally, import prices have considerable effect on countries’ inflation rates in the post-globalization period consistent with the increase in import penetration and globalization of production throughout the world.

Keywords:

Inflation, Globalization, Panel data,

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