BEKLENTİ TEORİSİ VE HİNDİSTAN’IN KEŞMIR POLİTİKASI

Bu çalışma, son zamanlardaki Hindistan’ın Keşmir bölgesindeki riskli hareketlerini analiz etmektedir. Keşmir üzerindeki anlaşmazlık 1947 yılından itibaren dört savaşa neden olmuştur. Net kayıp ve kazançları inceleyen fayda teorisine karşıt olarak, bir referans noktasına göre kayıp ve kazançlara yönelik karar verme sürecini inceleyen beklenti teorisi, Keşmir’e yönelik riskli Hint politikasını açıklamak için kullanılacaktır. Beklenti teorisi, dış politikadaki riskli davranışları açıklamak için yararlıdır. Keşmir’deki riskli Hint politikasını analiz etmek için, bu çalışma, Hint referans noktalarını Hint politika yapıcılarının konuşmalarını ve bildirilerini yardımıyla teşhis etmeye çalışacaktır. Hintli politika yapıcılarının Keşmir hakkındaki referans noktalarını belirledikten sonra, kendilerini referans noktalarını korumak için riskli politikalara sevk eden şartları inceleyecektir. Bu makalenini ana fikri Hindistan’ın Keşmir üzerindeki egemenliğini tehdit ederek ve çatışmayı uluslararası hale getirerek, Çin Pakistan Ekonomik Koridoru, Hindistan’ın Keşmir konusundaki referans noktalarını zedelemektedir. Bu yüzden, Hindistan hayli gergin bir bölgede referans noktalarını korumak için riskli hamlelere başvurmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Beklenti Teorisi, Hindistan, Keşmir, ÇPEK, risk-kabülü

PROSPECT THEORY AND INDIAN POLICY TOWARDS KASHMIR

This paper tries to analyze recent risky moves of India regarding Kashmir. The dispute over Kashmir caused four war wars with Pakistan since 1947. Prospect theory, which analyzes decision making processes depending on gains or losses according to a reference point, instead of expected utility theory, which calculates net gains or losses, will be used to explain risky Indian actions regarding Kashmir. Prospect theory is useful in explaining risky behavior in foreign policy decisions. To analyze Indian risky moves in Kashmir, firstly, this paper tries to identify Indian reference points with the help of the Indian policymakers’ speeches and statements. After determining Indian leaders’ reference points regarding Kashmir, it engages in understanding circumstances which drove them to pursue risky decisions to preserve reference points. The main argument of this paper is that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will infringe Indian reference points regarding Kashmir in that it harms India’s sovereignty claims over Kashmir and internationalize the conflict by involving China. Therefore, India resorts to risky moves in a highly troublesome region to preserve what it perceives to be status quo

Keywords:

Prospect theory, India, Kashmir, the CPEC,

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