BALASSA-SAMUELSON HİPOTEZİ: FARKLI GELİR GRUPLARI ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Reel döviz kurunun uzun dönemde satın alma gücü paritesinden sapmalarını ülkelerin göreli verimliliklerindeki değişimle açıklayan Balassa-Samuelson hipotezine göre, ülkelerin göreli verimlilikleri arttıkça reel döviz kuru değer kazanmaktadır. Hipotezin geçerliliği çok sayıda çalışma tarafından incelenmiş ancak farklı ülke ya da ülke grupları için farklı sonuçlar ortaya koyulmuştur. Bu çalışmada, ülkelerin göreli üretkenlikleri ile reel döviz kurları arasında pozitif bir ilişki olup olmadığı 82 ülke ve 1980-2017 dönemini kapsayan geniş bir panel veri seti kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Bunun yanında, farklı gelir düzeyine sahip ülke grupları için reel döviz kuru modelleri tahmin edilerek karşılaştırmalı bir analiz sunulmaktadır. Tüm ülke grubu için yapılan Panel Dinamik OLS tahmin sonuçları, ülkelerin göreli verimliliği arttıkça yerli paranın reel olarak değer kazandığını göstermektedir. Alt gelir grupları için yapılan analizler ise, hipotezin yüksek ve orta-gelir düzeyine sahip ülkelerde güçlü şekilde geçerli iken, düşük-gelirli ülkelerde geçerli olmadığını göstermiştir. Yüksek-gelirli ülkelerde göreli verimliliğin reel döviz kuru üzerindeki pozitif etkisi, orta-gelir düzeyine sahip ülkelere göre daha yüksektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi, reel döviz kuru, verimlilik, panel veri

BALASSA-SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR DIFFERENT INCOME GROUPS

According to the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis which explains the deviations of real exchange rate from purchasing power parity with the changes in countries’ relative productivity, the real exchange rate appreciates when there is a rise in countries’ relative productivity. A wide range of studies examining the validity of Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis have revealed different findings for different set of countries. In this study, it is examined whether there exists a positive relationship between real exchange rate and growth for large panel data set comprising 82 countries and 1980-2017 period. Besides, it offers a comparative analysis by estimating real exchange rate models for group of countries with different levels of income. Panel Dynamic OLS estimation results for the whole country supports the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis showing that domestic currency appreciates as productivity rises. The analysis for sub-income groups indicate that, the hypothesis is strongly valid for high-income and medium-income groups, while it is not supported for low-income group. Positif effect of relative roductivity on real exchange rate is higher for high-income countries than middle-income countries.

Keywords:

BALASSA-SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, PRODUCTIVITY, PANEL DATA,

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