Göç, İşsizlik ve Gelir Arasındaki İlişkilerin Analizi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği*

Küreselleşme hareketleriyle birlikte özellikle 2000’li yıllardan sonra büyük artış gösteren uluslararası göç hareketleri, günümüzde yüksek gelirli ülkeler için en önemli ekonomik ve politik konuların başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada, göçün makroekonomik belirleyicilerinin neler olduğunu ortaya koymak amacıyla göç, işsizlik ve kişi başına düşen gelir arasındaki ilişkiler 2000- 2016 döneminde panel veri analiz yöntemi kullanılarak 27 OECD ülkesi için test edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, işsizlik oranı göç üzerinde negatif ve %1 seviyesinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olup işsizlik oranında meydana gelen %1’lik artış, OECD ülkelerinde bu ülkelere gelen göçü yaklaşık %0,3 azaltmaktadır. Kişi başına düşen gelir göç üzerinde pozitif ve %1 seviyesinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olup kişi başına düşen gelirin %1 oranında artması, OECD ülkelerine gelen göçü yaklaşık %1 oranında artırmaktadır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bu sonuçlar, göçün belli kanunlar çerçevesinde bir ülkeden diğerine gitmediğini her ülkenin kendine özgü koşullarının göç akımlarını etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla, politika uygulayıcılarının ülkelerine özgü bireysel özellikleri dikkate alarak politika geliştirmeleri önem arz etmektedir.

Analysis of Relations between Migration, Unemployment and Income: The Case of OECD Countries

International migration flows that especially have risen after the 2000s with globalization movements is one of the major economic and political concerns for high income countries these days. In this study, in order to assert the macroeconomic determinants of migration, the relationship between migration, unemployment and per capita income in 2000-2016 period is analyzed by using panel data analysis for 27 OECD countries. According to the test results, unemployment rate has 1 % negative and statistically significant effect on migration and 1% of unemployment rate rise results in about a 0,3% decrease of migration to OECD countries. Per capita income has 1% positive and statistically significant effect on migration, and 1% of per capita income rise results in about a 1% increase of migration to OECD countries. The results suggest that migration does not mean to move from one country to another according to certain rules, but the special conditions of each country effect migration flows. Therefore, it is important that policy makers should convey politics considering the properties typical to their own countries.

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