Bu makalenin amacı, Suriye İç Savaşı’nı sona erdirmede uluslararası görüşmelerin etkisini analiz etmektir. Savaşın başlamasından bugüne çok sayıda barış görüşmesi yapılsa da, mevcut literatürde uluslararası barış görüşmelerinin Suriye savaşını erdirmedeki etkisi yeterli düzeyde yer bulmamaktadır. Makale, literatürdeki bu boşluğu 2011-2019 yılları arasındaki temel barış çalışmalarını inceleyerek doldurmayı hedeflemektedir: Arap Birliği Barış Planı, Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) barış girişimleri, Cenevre, Viyana ve Astana barış görüşmeleri. Bu görüşmeler; BM, ABD, Türkiye, BM Güvenlik Konseyi ve barış görüşmeleri sonunda deklare edilen resmi raporlar aracılığıyla analiz edilmektedir. Bölgesel ve uluslararası aktörlerin ve çatışmadaki kilit grupların görüşleri de gazete arşivleri yoluyla incelenmektedir. Bu sayede, çatışma çözümü çalışmalarının başarısız olma nedenleri açığa çıkartılmaktadır. Araştırma, barış çalışmalarını analiz edebilmek için uluslararası görüşmeler ve uygunluk-hazırlık (ripeness) teorik yaklaşımlarından faydalanmaktadır. Makalenin iddiası; bölgesel ve uluslararası güçlerin barış görüşmelerinde tarafsız birer arabulucu yerine yalnızca kolaylaştırıcı görevi gördüğüdür. Makale, şimdiye kadarki barış çalışmaları resmi görüşmeler olarak nitelense de, aslında bu çalışmaların resmi görüşmeleri gerçekleştirebilmek için bir hazırlayıcı, yani ön görüşmeler olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır.
The purpose of this article is to assess international negotiation efforts towards ending the civil war in Syria. Although many peace events have been organised since the beginning of the civil war, the existing literature has paid little attention on the impact of international peace efforts in ending the Syrian war. The article aims to close this gap by assessing major peace efforts between 2011 and 2019: The Arab League Peace Plan, the United Nations peace initiatives, and the Geneva, Vienna and Astana peace talks. It analyses these efforts through official reports and documents published by the UN, US, Republic of Turkey, UN Security Council, and members of peace initiatives. These documents are complemented by newspaper articles showing the official views of the regional and global actors as well as the key agents of the conflict. Therefore, the article reveals the reasons for the failure of these conflict resolution efforts. It utilises official negotiation and ripeness approaches to investigate the insights and contents of peace efforts. The article argues that the regional and global powers have acted as facilitators instead of mediators in the peace talks. It finds that even though these peace events are viewed as official negotiations, they are only pre-negotiation efforts.
Action Group for Syria. Final Communique, Arab League, June 30, 2012, 1-5.
Arab League. Report of the Head of the League of Arab States Observer Mission to Syria for the period from 24 December 2011 to 18 January 2012, Report No: 259.12D (2012).
Carpenter, Ted Galen. “Tangled Web: The Syrian Civil War and Its Implications.” Mediterranean Quarterly 24, no.1 (February 2013): 1-11, doi: 10.1215/10474552-2018988.
Coleman, Peter T. “Redefining Ripeness: A Social-psychological Perspective,” Peace and Conflict 3, no.1 (1997): 81-103.
De Juan, Alexander and André Bank. “The Ba’athist Blackout? Selective Goods Provision and Political Violence in the Syrian Civil War,” Journal of Peace Research 52, no.1 (January 2015), 91-104, doi: 10.1177/0022343314559437.
Druckman, Daniel. “Dimensions of International Negotiations: Structures, Processes, and Outcomes.” Group Decision and Negotiation 6, no.5 (September 1997): 395-420.
Erlich, Reese. Inside Syria. New York: Prometheus Books, 2016.
Fisher, Roger and William L. Ury. Getting to Yes. London: Business Books, 1996.
Fisher, Ronald R. “Coordination between Track Two and Track One Diplomacy in Successful Cases of Prenegotiation.” International Negotiation 11, no.1, (January 2006): 65-89.
Guelke, Adrian. “Negotiations and Peace Processes.” In Contemporary Peacemaking: Conflict, Violence, Peace Processes, edited by John Darby and Roger MacGinty, 63-77. New York: Macmillan, 2003.
Haas, Richard. Conflicts Unending: The United States and Regional Disputes. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990.
Hancock, Landon E. “To Act or Wait: A Two-Stage View of Ripeness.” International Studies Perspectives 2, no.2 (May 2001): 195-205.
Hancock, Landon E. “The Northern Irish Peace Process: From Top to Bottom.” International Studies Review 10, no.2 (June 2008): 214.
Hartzell, Caroline A. “Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43, no.1, (February 1999): 3-20.
HRW. We’ve Never Seen Such Horror. New York: Human Rights Watch, 2011.
Jackson, Richard. “Successful Negotiation in International Violent Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 37, no.3 (May 2000): 323-343.
Kadıoğlu, İ. Aytaç. “The Oslo Talks: Revealing the Turkish Government’s Secret Negotiations with the PKK.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 42, no.10 (2019): 915-933.
Kadıoğlu, İ. Aytaç. “Not Our War: Iraq, Iran and Syria’s Approaches towards the PKK.” The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development 9, no.1 (Winter 2019): 44-57.
Kadıoğlu, İ. Aytaç. (2018) “Crossing the Border of Life: Is the European Union a Safe Haven for Syrian Refugees? [Yaşamın Sınırını Geçmek: Avrupa Birliği Suriyeli Sığınmacılar İçin Güvenli Bir Liman Mı?].” In Ortadoğu’da Göç Hareketleri ve Değişen Dinamikler, edited by Ertan Özensel, Gökhan Bozbaş, Fatih Kaleci and Mehmet Nuri Salur, 48-78, Konya: Aybil, 2018.
Khan, Hafeez Ulla and Waseem Khan. “Syria: History, The Civil War and Peace Prospects.” Journal of Political Studies 24, no.2 (December 2017): 557-573.
Kleiboer, Marieke. “Ripeness of Conflict: A Fruitful Notion.” Journal of Peace Research 31, no.1 (February 1994): 109-116.
Kriesberg, Louis. “Timing and the Initiation of De-Escalation Moves.” Negotiation Journal 3 no.4, (1987): 375-384.
Küçükkeleş, Müjge. “Arab League’s Syrian Policy.” SETA Policy Brief, No:56, (2012): 1-20.
Lawson, Fred H. “Syria’s Mutating Civil War and Its Impact on Turkey, Iraq and Iran,” International Affairs 90, no.6 (November 2014): 1351-1365.
Licklider, Roy. “The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993.” The American Political Science Review 89, no.3, (September 1995): 681-690.
Lundgren, Magnus. “Mediation in Syria: Initiatives, Strategies, and Obstacles, 2011–2016.” Contemporary Security Policy 37, no.2 (June 2016): 273-288, doi: 10.1080/13523260.2016.1192377.
MFA. “The Second Conference of the Group of Friends of the Syrian People Will Take Place in İstanbul.” Ankara: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Miller, Paul D. Getting to Negotiations in Syria: The Shadow of the Future and the Syrian Civil War. No.PE-126-OSD. California: RAND, 2014.
O’Kane, Eamonn. “When Can Conflicts Be Resolved? A Critique of Ripeness.” Civil Wars 8, no.3-4, (December 2006): 268-284.
Phillips, Christopher. “Sectarianism and Conflict in Syria.” Third World Quarterly 36, no.2, (March 2015): 357-376.
Pruitt, Dean G. “Ripeness Theory and the Oslo Talks.” International Negotiation 2, no.2 (January 1997): 237-250.
Richmond, Oliver P. “Rethinking Conflict Resolution: The Linkage Problematic between ‘Track I’ and Track II.” Journal of Conflict Studies 21, no.2, (August 2001): 1-14.
UN. “Note to Correspondents: Transcript of the Press Conference by the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Stafan de Mistura.” July 5, 2017, The United Nations.
UNSCR, Resolution 2042: Adopted by the Security Council at its 6751st meeting, on 14 April 2012. S/RES/2042 (2012).
UNSCR. Resolution 2043: Adopted by the Security Council at its 6756th meeting, on 21 April 2012. S/RES/2043 (2012).
UNSCR, Resolution 2254: Adopted by the Security Council at its 7588th meeting, on 18 December 2015. S/RES/2254 (2015).
Zartman, I. William. Elusive Peace: Negotiating an End to Civil Wars. Washington: Brookings, 1995.
Al Jazeera. “Rebels in Southern Syria Reach Deal to End Violence.” July 7, 2018, accessed August 20, 2018. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/rebels-southern-syria-reach-ceasefire-deal-russia-180706130719825.html.
Al Jazeera. “Syria ‘Violence Defies Peace Deal’.” November 4, 2011, accessed December 4, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/ 201111381935847935. html. Astana Calling. “6th Astana Process Talks Produce De-Escalation Zone Agreement.” September 27, 2017, accessed November 11, 2017. https://www.astanacalling.com/6th-astana-process-talks-produce-de-escalation-zone-agreement.
Astana Times. “Syrian Opposition Meeting in Astana Makes Tentative Headway in Finding Way forward for Peace Process.” May 29, 2015, accessed February 8, 2019. https://astanatimes.com/2015/05/syrian-opposition-meeting-in-astana-makes-tentative-headway-in-finding-way-forward-for-peace-process.
Astana Times. “Latest Syrian Peace Talks in Astana Focus on Humanitarian Issues.” November 2, 2017, accessed April 8, 2018. https://astanatimes.com/2017/11/latest-syrian-peace-talks-in-astana-focus-on-humanitarian-issues.
Barnard, Anne and Nick Cumming-Bruce. “After Second Round of Syria Talks, No Agreement Even on How to Negotiate.” New York Times, February 16, 2014.
BBC. “UN Envoy Calls for Transitional Government in Syria.” June 30, 2012, accessed November 26, 2013. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18650775.
BBC. “Syria Conflict: Powers Backing Rivals Meet in Vienna.” October 30, 2015, accessed November 1, 2015. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p035yyfl.
BBC. “Syria: The Story of the Conflict.” March 11, 2016, accessed April 22, 2017. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868.
BBC. “Syria Conflict: Ceasefire Agreed, Backed by Russia and Turkey.” December 29, 2016, accessed December 29, 2016. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38460127.
Brahimi, Lakhdar. “Syria, A Civil, Sectarian and Proxy War.” Elders, August 22, 2012, accessed May 8, 2018. https://theelders.org/news/syria-civil-sectarian-and-proxy-war.
CNN. “U.S. Airstrikes Hit ISIS Targets Inside Syria.” September 23, 2014, accessed October 2, 2014. http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/u-s-airstrikes-isissyria/index.html? hpt=hp_t1.
CNN. “Syria Civil War: Fast Facts.” October 11, 2019, accessed November 1, 2019. https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria-civil-war-fast-facts/index.html.
CNN Türk. ‘Rusya ile Suriye Mutabakatı.’ October 22, 2019, accessed October 23, 2019. https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/rusya-ile-suriye-mutabakati-iste-10-maddelik-anlasma.
Fox News. “Arab League to Suspend Syria from Meetings.” November 12, 2011, accessed April 16, 2019. https://www.foxnews.com/world/arab-league-to-suspend-syria-from-meetings.
France 24. “Erdogan Says Syria Operation Aimed at IS Jihadists, Kurdish PYD.” August 24, 2016, accessed April 1, 2016. http://www.france24.com/en/20160824-erdogan-says-syria-operation-aimed-jihadists-kurdish-pyd.
Guardian. “Sponsors of Syria Talks in Astana Strike Deal to Protect Fragile Ceasefire.” January 24, 2017, accessed January 25, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/24/syria-talks-astana-russia-turkey-iran-ceasefire.
Haaretz. “560,000 Killed in Syria’s War According to Updated Death Toll.” December 10, 2018, accessed January 2, 2019. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/560-000-killed-in-syria-s-war-according-to-updated-death-toll-1.6700244.
Huffington Post. “Backed by Russian Jets Syrian Army Closes in on Aleppo.” February 4, 2016, accessed February 24, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/backed-by-russian-jets-syrian-army-closes-in-on-aleppo_us_56b37778e4b08069c7a63e09.
IamSyria. “Death Tolls.” accessed September 6, 2019. http://www.iamsyria.org/death-tolls.html.
Interfax. “Ninth Round of Astana-Hosted Syria Talks to Take Place after Syria Truce Guarantor Countries, FMs in Astana – Kazakh Foreign Ministry.” February 13, 2018, accessed March 3, 2018. http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?pg=5&id=810002.
Middle East Eye. “UN Chief Takes Aim at Russia over Syria Military Build-Up.” July, 11, 2017, accessed July 30, 2015. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/un-chief-takes-aim-russia-over-syria-military-buildup.
New York Times. “With Thousands in Streets, Syria Kills Protesters.” March 26, 2011. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/world/middleeast/26syria.html.
Obama, Barack. “Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada after Bilateral Meeting.” The U.S. White House, November 19, 2015, accessed November 20, 2015. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-ofice/2015/11/19/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-trudeau-canada-after.
Reuters. “Text of Annan’s Six-Point Peace Plan for Syria.” April 4, 2012, accessed January 1, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-ceasefire/text-of-annans-six-point-peace-plan-for-syria-idUSBRE8330HJ20120404.
Reuters. “Factbox - What They Said on Syria at Montreux.” January 22, 2014, accessed June 4, 2019. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-crisis-talks-quotes/factbox-what-they-said-on-syria-at-montreux-idUKBREA0L1JI20140122.
Reuters. “Putin Declares ‘Complete Victory’ on Both Banks of Euphrates in Syria.” December 6, 2017, accessed January 23, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideastcrisis-syria-putin/putin-declares-complete-victory-on-both-banks-of-euphrates-in-syria-idUSKBN1E027.
Russia Today. “Syria Crisis Plan: Cessation of Hostilities, Humanitarian Airdrops, Peace Talks Laid Out in Munich.” February 12, 2016, accessed February 19, 2016. https://www.rt.com/news/332211-munich-lavrov-kerry-un-syria.
TASS. “Russia, Turkey and Iran Continue Cooperation on De-escalation Zones in Syria.” June 23, 2017, accessed August 30, 2017, http://tass.com/world/953004.