SOFİSTİKE ÜRÜN İHRACATI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE VE GÜNEY KORE ÖRNEĞİ

Ülkelerin en büyük makroekonomik hedeflerinden biri ekonomik kalkınmadır. Ekonomik kalkınma, düşük gelir ve kötü bir yaşam kalitesine sahip olan az gelişmiş ülkelerin bulundukları bu durumdan, insanlarının çoğunun yüksek bir gelir ve yaşam standartlarına sahip olduğu bir noktaya gelmesi süreci olarak tanımlanabilir. Ülkelerin ekonomik kalkınmalarını sağlamaları için en önemli faktör ekonomik büyümedir. İhracat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi araştıran çalışmalara literatürde oldukça sık rastlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmaların çoğu, ihracatın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucunu işaret etmektedir. Ancak bazı ülkelerin ihracatlarında büyük artışlar sağlanmasına rağmen iktisadi olarak sürdürülebilir bir büyüme yakalayamadıkları gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum ülkelerin ne kadar ihracat yaptıklarından ziyade ne ihraç ettiklerinin daha önemli olduğu kanısının oluşmasına neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada Hausmann vd. tarafından oluşturulan bir endeks kullanılarak Türkiye ve Güney Kore'nin 1960 sonrası dönemde yaptıkları ihracatın sofistike değerleri hesaplanmış ve iki ülkenin ihracatlarının kalitesinde meydana gelen değişimler karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmiştir. Özetlenen tanımlayıcı istatistikler sonucunda, bu ülkelerin ihracat kalitelerindeki değişim ile ekonomik büyümeleri arasında bir etkileşim olduğu belirlenmiştir. 1960'lı yıllarda Türkiye'nin ihracatının sofistike değeri ile Güney Kore'nin ihracatının sofistike değerleri hemen hemen aynı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonrasında Güney Kore'nin ihracat yapısının değişmesi ve ihracatının sofistike değerinin yükselmesi gelişmiş ülkelere yakınsamasına olanak sağlamıştır. Türkiye ise ihracatının yapısının aynı kalması ve ihracatının sofistike değerinin yükselmemesi gelişmiş ülkelere yakınsamasına engel olmuştur. Çalışma Türkiye'nin 10 bin dolar seviyesinde sıkışan kişi başına düşen milli gelirini yükseltip Güney Kore gibi gelişmiş ülkelere yakınsaması için ihracatının sofistike değerini yükseltmesi gerektiği sonucunu işaret etmektedir

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORT SOPHISTICATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: IN THE CASE OF TURKEY AND SOUTH KOREA

One of the most important purpose of countries is economic development. Economic development is adopted as a process, which leads a country from a state of underdevelopment, characterized by low income and poor quality of life, to one of higher living standards for a large majority of its citizens. Countries must be successful at sustainable economic growth for economic development. There is a respectable number of studies concentrated on the relationship between exports and economic growth. The majority of these studies indicate that export has a positive impact on economic growth. However, some countries could not succeed at economic growth despite export increase in recent years. This situation reveals the view that export composition is more important than export volume. Empirical studies carried out in recent years show that the developing countries which succeeded to penetrate world markets with similar product to those of developed countries have certainly performed much better than other developing countries which failed in diversifying their exports and in concentrating on technological manufactured goods. In this study, firstly, PRODY index which represents the sophistication of a product group calculated using sectoral export data of 142 countries including 717 product groups. Calculated PRODY index shows that product groups exported especially by developed countries and more capital-intensive such as “Photographic apparatus, equipment and supplies and optical goods”, “Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances” and “Road vehicles” have relatively high PRODY index values. In the other hand, product groups especially exported by developing country and labor-intensive such as “Cereals and cereal preparations”, “Vegetables and fruit” and “Dairy products and birds' eggs” have relatively low PRODY index values. Secondly, the EXPY index which represents the sophistication of export of a country has been calculated using this PRODY index value. Calculated EXPY index shows that a country which has high Gross Domestic Per Capita also has high EXPY value and a poor country has a low EXPY value. Export, Gross Domestic Per Capita and EXPY formation of South Korea and Turkey have been compared over sample period of 1962-2013 to investigate the relationship between economic growth and export sophistication. When the EXPY formation of Turkey and South Korea in 1962 is examined it can be observed that the EXPY value of two countries consists of agriculture and sea products and the EXPY value of two countries is almost equal. At the same year Gross Domestic Per Capita of Turkey is seven times greater than Gross Domestic Per Capita of South Korea and Turkey’s export is three times greater than export of South Korea. After this year, South Korea had succeeded to improve their EXPY formation from labor intensive-product to capital-intensive product while Turkey EXPY formation has been remained labor intensive-product from 1962 to 2000. The development of EXPY formation has enabled South Korea to show better economic performance and to converge to developed countries. When the development of EXPY value of South Korea and the Gross Domestic Per Capita values are examined, it is observed that both variables behave together. In the other hand, Turkey had not been succeeded at developing its EXPY formation that avoided Turkey to converge to developed countries. When it comes to 2000’s it can be realize that South Korea was converged to developed countries while Turkey still remain as an upper middle-income country. The empirical evidence of the present study revealed that the sophistication index of exports is significantly important on economic growth of countries when the Turkish and South Korean economies are periodically examined. The corresponding result designates that developing countries should concentrate on sophistication index of exports to achieve convergence to developed countries. In order to increase sophistication index, such countries may increase the weights of product groups in their export baskets in line with the product groups which are especially exported by developed countries. Thus, increasing exports with improved sophistication index will contribute to economic growth by raising added value. Particularly, in order to converge to developed countries, the Turkish economy should initially determine strategic industries to increase its GDP per capita inertia in ten thousand dollars. The technology transfer should be provided to the corresponding industries by encouraging direct foreign investments and R&D expenditures with relevant future policies. These future policies will provide the Turkish economy a competitive advantage and increase its competition power. Increasing competition power will lead to increase the share of industries that require technology on total exports and thus, the value of EXPY of the Turkish economy will also increase that enables the Turkish economy to show a sustainable economic growth performance.

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