KKTC'deki Ergen Gençlerin Siyasal Katılım Düzeyleri ve Biçimleri: 9 Yıllık Kohort Çalışması

Bu çalışma, Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti’ndeki ergen gençlerin siyasal katılım düzeylerinin ve buna yönelik tutumlarının zaman içerisinde değişip değişmediğini ve eğer değişim varsa, bu değişimin yönünü tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Söz konusu çalışmada ayrıca, siyasal katılım ve tutumlardaki değişimin, ergen gençlerin demografik özelliklerine göre farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığı da araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın verileri, yüz yüze anket tekniğiyle 2007 ve 2016 yıllarında dokuzuncu ve onikinci sınıflara devam eden 15 ve 18 yaşlarındaki ergenlerin oluşturduğu iki kohort gruptan toplanmıştır. Kohort örneklemiyle elde edilen veriler, istatistiksel olarak wilcoxon işaretli sıralar testi, yüzdelik testi ve çapraz tablolama analiziyle ölçülmüştür. Araştırma bulgularına göre, ergen gençlerin siyasal katılım düzeyleri ve bazı biçimleri arasında, 2007 yılına kıyasla 2016 yılında düşüş olduğu kaydedilmiştir. Siyasal katılım biçimleriyle ilişkili olarak, oy verme niyeti ve siyasal bir partinin simgesini taşıma düzeylerinde düşüş gerçekleşmiştir. Ayrıca ergen gençlerin oy vermeye ilişkin tutumlarının, bazı demografik özelliklerine göre farklılaştığı da tespit edilmiştir. Bu çerçevede ergen gençlerin oy verme niyetlerinin, yaş ve cinsiyet değişkenlerine göre farklılaştığı kaydedilmiştir. Oy verme konusunda, 15 yaşındaki ergen gençler ile 18 yaşındaki gençler arasında anlamlı farklılık bulunmuştur. Buna göre 18 yaşındaki ergen gençlerin oy verme niyetlerinin ortalaması, 15 yaşındakilere kıyasla göreli olarak daha yüksektir. Keza cinsiyet değişkenine bağlı olarak, kız ergenlerin, erkek ergenlere kıyasla oy verme niyetlerinin daha yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, siyasal bir partinin simgesini taşıma konusunda, erkek ergenlerin, kız ergenlere kıyasla daha yüksek bir katılım sergiledikleri kaydedilmiştir. Ayrıca aynı özelliklere sahip iki ergen kohortun 2007 ile 2016 yılları arasındaki siyasal katılım düzeylerindeki düşüş, dönem etkisiyle açıklanmaktadır.

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