GÖÇMEN GÖNDERİLERİ VE REEL EFEKTİF DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE HOLLANDA HASTALIĞI ETKİSİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Çalışmak amacıyla gittiği ülkede bir yıldan daha fazla süreyle kalan göçmenlerin ailelerine gönderdikleri para olarak tanımlanan göçmen havaleleri, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin önemli sermaye kaynaklarından biridir. Literatürde göçmen gönderilerinin giriş yaptığı ülkede yoksulluğu azaltarak refah seviyesini yükselteceği, büyüme performansını gidereceği, dış finansman kaynaklarına duyulan ihtiyacı azaltacağı ve daha yüksek yatırım potansiyeli yaratacağı yönünde pek çok kazanımından bahsedilmektedir. Ancak göçmen gönderilerinin reel döviz kurunda değerlenmeye yol açarak ülkenin dış ticarette rekabetçi üstünlüğünü zedelediği ve üretim faktörlerini ticarete konu olan sektörlerden konu olmayan sektörlere doğru harekete geçirebileceğine yönelik olumsuz etkilerine de dikkat çekilmektedir. Göçmen gönderilerinin reel döviz kurunun değerlenmesiyle ortaya çıkardığı bu durum Hollanda hastalığı olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı en fazla göçmen gönderisi alan sekiz gelişmekte olan ülkede Hollanda hastalığının varlığını araştırmaktır. Bu doğrultuda 1982-2015 dönemi verileri kullanılarak ikinci nesil panel veri yöntemleri ile ekonometrik analiz yapılmıştır. AMG tahmincisi kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlara göre göçmen gönderilerinin Çin ve Nijerya'da reel döviz kurunun değerlenmesine yol açtığı ancak göçmen gönderileri ticarete konu olan sektörlere kanalize edildiği için Hollanda hastalığı etkisi yaratmadığı tespit edilmiştir

THE NEXUS BETWEEN REMITTANCES AND THE REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON DUTCH DISEASE EFFECT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Remittances, which are defined as the capital transfer of migrants to their families in their home countries, are one of the important foreign capital sources particularly in the developing countries. In the literature, it is emphasized that remittances increase welfare in the receiving countries by decreasing poverty, lead to higher growth performance and eliminate the fluctuations in production, ease external financing constraints and create higher investment potential. However, it is also highlighted that remittances may harm the competitive advantage of the country in foreign trade by leading to appreciation in the real exchange rate and may shift the production factors from traded sectors to nontraded sectors. This situation caused by remittances through the appreciation of real exchange rate is called Dutch Disease effect. This study aims to examine the existence of Dutch Disease in eight developing countries which receive the highest amount of remittances. To this end, using the data for the 1982-2015 period and the second generation panel data methods, the econometric analysis was conducted. The results of the AMG estimator suggest that remittances lead to the appreciation of real exchange rate in China and Nigeria; however, this has not created Dutch Disease effect, because of the shifting of resources to traded sectors in these two countries.

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Turkish Studies (Elektronik)-Cover
  • ISSN: 1308-2140
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2006
  • Yayıncı: Mehmet Dursun Erdem