DIŞ TİCARET VE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR ARASI İLİŞKİ: BRICS ÜLKELERİ VE TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ

Son elli yılda, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar küreselleşme sürecinin en önemli unsurlarından biri haline gelmiştir ve uluslararası ticaret hacminin çok üzerinde bir hızla büyümüştür. Ülke ekonomilerde ticaret ve yatırımın önündeki engellerin azalmasıyla ortaya çıkan artan liberalleşme, çokuluslu şirketlerin üretim ve dağıtım faaliyetlerini bulabilecekleri yeni ve daha büyük pazarların yaratılmasına yol açmıştır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışları dış ticareti etkileyebilen önemli faktörlerdir. Konuyla ilgili teorik literatür doğrudan yabancı yatırım giriş ve çıkışlarının dış ticaret üzerinde tek ve sabit bir etkisinin varlığından ziyade değişik faktörlere dayalı farklı etkilerin ortaya çıkabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, doğrudan yabancı yatırım giriş ve çıkışlarının ithalat ve ihracat üzerindeki etkileri olumlu olabildiği gibi, olumsuz da olabilmektedir. Teorik tartışmalar ışığında konuyu ele alan ampirik literatür farklı yöntem, dönem ve örneklem kullanarak çok çeşitli sonuçlara ulaşmıştır. Bu çalışmada doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarının ithalat ve ihracat üzerindeki etkisi yıllık frekansta verilerin kullanıldığı 1992 – 2017 dönemi için BRICS ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin dâhil edildiği panel veri seti üzerinde incelenmiştir. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı varsayımları altında gerçekleştirilen Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik analizi sonucunda ihracat ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar girişi arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. İthalat ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında ise tek yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiş olup, ithalat doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar girişinin değişmesine neden olmaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar çıkışı ile ithalat ve ihracat arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS: AN ANALYSIS OF BRICS COUNTRIES AND TURKEY

Over the last five decades, foreign direct investment has become one of the most important elements of the globalization process and has grown at a rate well above the international trade volume. The increasing level of trade liberalization and investment in the world economies due to reduced barriers has led to the creation of new and larger markets for multinational corporations to find production and distribution activities. Foreign direct investment inflows and inflows are important factors that can affect foreign trade. The theoretical literature on the subject suggests that the impacts of foreign direct investment inflows and outflows may arise from the existence of a single, fixed effect on foreign trade, which may result in different influences based on different factors. In other words, the effects of foreign direct investment inflows and outflows on exports as well as imports can be either positive or negative. The empirical literature on the subject of theoretical discussions has reached a wide variety of conclusions using different methodologies, periods and samples. In this study, the impacts of foreign direct investment inflows and foreign direct investment outflows on import and export are examined using data of annual frequency over the period 1992 – 2017 for BRICS countries and Turkey by performing panel data analysis. The panel causality analysis of Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) which is conducted under the assumptions of cross-sectional dependency reveals a bilateral causal relationship between exports and foreign direct investment inflows. There is a unilateral relationship between imports and foreign direct investments, which leads to a shift in foreign direct investment inflows. No causal relationships between exports and direct foreign investments and between imports and exports are detected.

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