Berna AK BİNGÜL, Armağan TÜRK, Rengin AK

Covid-19 Bağlamında Tarihteki Büyük Salgınlar ve Ekonomik Sonuçları

2019 yılının Aralık ayında Çin’in Hubei eyaleti Wuhan şehrinde ortaya çıkan Covid-19 salgını küresel çapta etkisini göstermiş ve bunun sonucunda, WHO tarafından 11 Mart 2020 tarihinde Pandemi olarak ilan edilmiştir. Pandemi ulusal sağlık sistemini kilitlerken bir dizi kendini güçlendiren sosyal ve ekonomik hasarlar gibi negatif dinamikleri de tetiklemiştir. Güçlü bağlantılı ve bütünleşmiş bir dünyada, hastalığın ölüm, yetersizlik ve belirsizliğin ötesindeki etkileri salgından bu yana belirginleşmiştir. Aşı veya etkili bir tedavinin yokluğunda, hükümetler benzeri görülmemiş sınırlama ve hafifletme önlemleri uygulayarak yanıt verdiler. Bu durum kısa vadeli büyük ekonomik kayıplara ve görülmemiş küresel ekonomik aktivitelerde düşüşe neden olmuştur. Salgın hastalıklarından kaynaklanan en önemli risk, toplum sağlığı olmakla birlikte ekonominin bütününde yarattığı çöküntü birbiri ile ilişkili krizleri de gündeme getirmektedir. Tarih boyunca insanlık birçok salgın hastalıkla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Salgınlar kitlesel ölümlere neden olurken hastalıktan kaynaklanan verimlilik ve işgücü kaybı ticaretin yavaşlaması gibi etkilerle ekonomik durgunluğa neden olmuştur. Covid-19, geçmişte yaşanan salgın hastalıklarla etkileri açısından benzerlikler göstermektedir. Ancak Covid-19’u diğer salgınlardan ayıran en önemli özellik sadece az gelişmiş ülkelerle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yoğunlaşmaması ve gelişmişlik düzeyinin ötesinde bütün ülkeleri etkisi altına alması ve belirsizlik yaratmış olmasıdır. Dolayısıyla, hastalığın evrimi ve ekonomik etkisinin belirsizliği, politika yapıcıların uygun bir makroekonomik politika yanıtı formüle etmelerini zorlaştırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 20. ve 21.yy’daki belli başlı salgınların ortaya çıkardığı ekonomik ve sosyal değişim ile dönüşümler incelenmiştir. Bu değişimlerin ışığında Covid-19’un ekonomik etkileri için sürece ilişkin bazı öngörü ve önerilerde bulunulması amaçlanmıştır.

Major Outbreak in Hıstory in the Context of Covid-19 and Its Economic Results

The Covid-19 outbreak, which occurred in Wuhan, China's Hubei province in December 2019, had a global impact and was declared as an pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020. While pandemic has locked the national health system, it has also triggered negative dynamics such as a series of selfstrengthening social and economic damages. In a strongly connected and integrated world, the effects of the disease beyond death, insufficiency and uncertainty have become evident since the outbreak. In the absence of vaccine or effective treatment, governments responded by applying unprecedented containment and mitigation measures. This led to large short-term economic losses and a decline in unprecedented global economic activities. Although the most important risk arising from outbreak diseases is public health, breakdown throughout the economy also brings up related crises. Throughout history, humanity has faced many outbreaks diseases. While outbreaks caused mass deaths, the productivity and loss of labor caused by the disease caused economic stagnation, with effects such as slow trade. Covid 19 shows similarities with the effects of past outbreaks. However, the most important feature that distinguishes Covid-19 from other outbreaks is that it does not concentrate only on developing countries and underdeveloped countries, and it affects all countries beyond the level of development and creates uncertainty. Therefore, the evolution of the disease and the uncertainty of its economic impact make it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In this study, economic and social changes and transformations caused by major outbreaks in the 20th and 21st centuries were examined. In the light of these changes, it is aimed to make some predictions and suggestions about the process for the economic effects of Covid-19.

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