Türkiye Otomotiv Dış Ticaretinin Belirleyicileri: 2009-2017 Dönemine İlişkin Ampirik Bulgular

Son otuz yılda Türkiye ekonomisi dışa açıldıkça Türkiye otomotiv sektörünün dış ticaretteki rolü de artmıştır. 2008 yılındaki küresel finans krizi sonrasında da Türkiye’nin otomotiv dış ticareti hem partner ülke hem de hacim olarak artmıştır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’nin otomotiv dış ticaret belirleyicilerini analiz etmek önem kazanmıştır. Nitekim çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’nin otomotiv dış ticaretinin belirleyicilerini panel çekim modeli çerçevesince analiz etmektir. Bu kapsamda Türkiye’nin otomotiv ihracat, ithalatı ve dış ticareti üç ayrı eşitlikle tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz 2009-2017 döneminde Türkiye’nin otomotiv dış ticaretinde ilk 20 sırada olan ülkeler için uygulanmıştır. Üç eşitliğin bulguları birbirinden farklıdır. Analize konu olan altı değişkenden kişi başı GSYH, nüfus, uzaklık ve döviz kuru Türkiye’nin otomotiv ihracatının en önemli belirleyicileridir. Gümrük birliğine üyelik vekil değişkeni ile otomotiv ihracatı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişki bulunamamıştır. Türkiye’nin otomotiv dış ticaret modeli için ise bu değişkenlerden kişi başı GSYH dışında diğerleri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuç vermiştir. Üretim kapasitesi değişkeni ise hem ihracat hem de dış ticaret eşitlikleri için istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Otomotiv ithalat fonksiyonun belirleyicileri için ise analize dahil edilen açıklayıcı değişkenler olan kişi başı GSYH oranı, nüfus, uzaklık, gümrük birliği, üretim kapasitesi ve döviz kurunun tamamı istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Ancak uzaklık değişkeni beklentilerin aksine Türkiye’nin otomotiv ithalatını pozitif yönde etkilemektedir.

The Determinants of Turkey’s Automotive Trade: Empirical Findings for the 2009-2017 Period

The role of the Turkey’s automotive industry in foreign trade has increased as the Turkey’s economy has opened to world markets in the last thirty years. After the global financial crisis in 2008, Turkey's automotive foreign trade increased both as a partner country and by volume. Thus, it is important to analyze Turkey's automotive foreign trade determinants. In fact, the aim of the study is to analyze the determinants of Turkey's automotive foreign trade within the framework of the panel data model. In this context, Turkey's automotive exports, imports and foreign trade were estimated in three separate equations. The analysis was applied for the top 20 countries in Turkey's automotive foreign trade in the period 2009-2017. The findings of the three equations are different from each other. Per capita GDP, population, distance and the exchange rate are the most important determinants of Turkey's automotive exports for the six different variables. However, no significant relationship has been found between custom union proxy variable and Turkey’s automotive exports. For the trade model of Turkey’s automotive industry, these variables are statistically significant except for per capita GDP. Production capacity variable is not statistically significant both for export and trade equations. For the determinants of the automotive import function, all of the explanatory variables -which are per capita GDP ratio, population, distance, customs union, production capacity and exchange rate- are statistically significant. However, contrary to the expectations, the variable of distance affects Turkey's automotive imports positively.

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Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics-Cover

ISSN: 2667-5625
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2006
Yayıncı: ASOS Eğitim Bilişim Danışmanlık Otomasyon Yayıncılık Reklam Sanayi ve Ticaret LTD ŞTİ