OECD Ülkelerinde Ticari Açıklık Yakınsaması: Phillips-Sul Kulüp Yakınsama Analizi

Yakınsama, ülkelerin çeşitli ekonomik göstergeler açısından zamanla birbirine yaklaşacağı durumu ifade etmektedir. Geleneksel uluslararası ticaret teorileri, uluslararası ticarete açıklığın artmasının, gelir yakınsamasını arttırıp artırmadığını açıklamada yetersiz kalmaktadır. Yakınsama hipotezinden ilk kez neoklasik büyüme teorilerinde bahsedilmiştir. Son zamanlardaki büyüme ve gelişme teorileri, ülkelerin kişi başına düşen gelir dağılımının yakınsama kulüpleri gösterebileceğini, yani durağan durum dağılımının küçük bir cazibe merkezi etrafında toplanma eğiliminde olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu çalışmada, 36 OECD ülkesi ve 1995-2017 dönemi için yıllık veriler kullanılarak kulüp yakınsama hipotezinin, ticari açıklık göstergesi çerçevesinde ortaya konması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, Phillips ve Sul (2007) tarafından ileri sürülen yakınsama testi kullanılarak ticari açıklığın yakınsama kulüpleri gösterip göstermediği analiz edilmiştir. Phillips ve Sul (2007) kümeleme yöntemiyle analize dâhil olan ülkeler veri matrisindeki benzerliklere göre gruplandırılmakta ve her bir grup içerisinde yakınsama olup olmadığı test edilmektedir. Ayrıca Phillips ve Sul (2007) kulüp yakınsama analiz sonucuna göre tespit edilen kulüplerin aralarında birleşip daha geniş kulüpler oluşturup oluşturmadığını incelemek amacıyla Phillips ve Sul (2009) analizi yapılmıştır. Phillips ve Sul (2007) analizine göre tüm ülkeler için genel bir yakınsama kulübünün bulunmadığı ve farklı yakınsama kulüplerinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Phillips ve Sul (2007) analizi sonucunda 7 adet ticari açıklık yakınsama kulübü ortaya çıkmıştır. Phillips ve Sul (2009) algoritması analiz sonuçlarına göre ise toplam 5 ticari açıklık yakınsama kulübü oluştuğu tespit edilmiştir.

Convergence of Trade Openness in OECD Countries: Phillips-Sul Club Convergence Analysis

Convergence refers to the situation in which countries will approach each other over time in terms of various economic indicators. Traditional theories of international trade are insufficient to explain whether the increase in openness to international trade increases the convergence of income. The convergence hypothesis was first mentioned in neoclassical growth theories. Recent theories of growth and development have shown that the distribution of income per capita in countries may show convergence clubs, ie the distribution of steady state tends to concentrate around a small center of attraction. In this study, it is aimed to present the club convergence hypothesis within the framework of trade openness indicator by using annual data for 36 OECD countries and 1995-2017 period. For this purpose, using convergence test proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007), it was analyzed whether the trade openness shows convergence clubs or not. Phillips and Sul (2007) clustering method, the countries included in the analysis are grouped according to similarities in the data matrix and convergence is tested in each group. In addition, Phillips and Sul (2009) analysis was conducted in order to examine whether the emerging clubs merge among themselves and form larger clubs according to the result of Phillips and Sul (2007) convergence analysis. According to Phillips and Sul (2007) analysis, it is found that there is no general convergence club for all countries and there are different convergence clubs. According to Phillips and Sul (2007) analysis, there is no general convergence club for all countries and different convergence clubs. Phillips and Sul (2007) analysis revealed that 7 trade openness convergence clubs. According to Phillips and Sul (2009) algorithm analysis results a total of 5 trade openness convergence clubs were determined.

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Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics-Cover

ISSN: 2667-5625
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2006
Yayıncı: ASOS Eğitim Bilişim Danışmanlık Otomasyon Yayıncılık Reklam Sanayi ve Ticaret LTD ŞTİ