GÖÇ OLGUSU VE SIĞINMACILARIN TÜRKİYE’DE İŞSİZLİK ORANINA ETKİLERİNİN ANALİZİ

Dünya ekonomisinde önemli bir paya sahip olan Ortadoğu üzerinde meydana gelen siyasi ve ekonomik olaylar birçok ülkeye tesir etmektedir. Nitekim bu olayların başında Arap Baharı gelir. Aralık 2010 tarihinde Tunus’ta tezgâhına el konulmasına isyan eden sebze-meyve satıcısı Muhammed Buazizi’nin kendisini ateşe vermesi ile başlayıp kitle hareketlerine dönüşen süreç Arap Baharı olarak adlandırılır. Neredeyse tüm Ortadoğu’ yu etkisi altına alan sürecin en ağır yaşandığı ülke hala iç savaşın devam ettiği Suriye’dir. İç savaş nedeniyle ülkelerini terk etmek zorunda kalan sığınmacılar başta Türkiye olmak üzere birçok ülkeye göç etmiştir. Türkiye’deki sayıları 3 milyonu geçmiş Suriyelilerin, ülkemize hem olumlu hem olumsuz bir takım etkileri olduğu düşünülmektedir. Özellikle son on yıl içerisinde yaşanan uluslararası göç hareketleri sebebiyle Türkiye’de bulunan yabancı kişi sayısı her gün artmaktadır. Suriye’de yaşanan iç savaş ortamından kaçan Suriyelilerin varlığı ile Türkiye, topraklarında en fazla uluslararası koruma sağlayan ülke konumuna gelmiştir. Artan uluslararası göç hareketliliği, Türkiye’yi sosyal, ekonomik ve kültürel alanlarda etkilemektedir. Bu etkilerden birisi de işgücü piyasaları üzerindedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de dışgöç ile artan göçmen sayısının işsizlik üzerindeki etkisinin değerlendirilmesidir. Çalışmada, 2000–2018 dönemlerinde Türkiye’de yaşayan göçmen sayısı ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki, zaman serisi analiz yöntemleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. TÜİK ve Göç İdaresi Genel Müdürlüğü verilerinden oluşturulan zaman serilerinin analizi sonucunda; seriler arasında uzun dönemli nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş olup, Türkiye’de bulunan göçmen sayısının işsizliğin bir nedeni olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

THE CASE OF IMMIGRATION AND THE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF DEFECTORS ON UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN TURKEY

The political and economic occurrences in Middle-East which has asignificant role on world economies has been affecting several countries. Afterall, Arab Spring is in the lead of these events. In December 2010, the processis referred as Arab Spring, initiating by setting himself into fire of MuhammedBuazizi, seller in a market, who uprose against impounding his stand whichturned into mass demonstration later on. Syria, in which the civil war is still inprogress, is the country where the situation, affecting almost all Middle-Eastcountries, has been expreienced heavily. Having to leave their countries due tothe civil war, asylum seekers have migrated several countries, notably Turkey. Itis thought that, Syrians, whose population is more than 3 million in Turkey, haveboth positive and negative effects on Turkey.Especially, due to international migration movements that occured in thelast decade, the number of foreign people in Turkey are increasing everyday.Fleeing from the civil war in Syria with the presence of Syrian territory madeTurkey most containing people under international protection. Increasedmigration mobility, effected Turkey in social, economic and cultural in the area.One of these impacts of Syrian is on the Turkish labor market. The aim of thestudy is to evaluate the effects of migration on unemployment in Turkey by theincreasing number of immigrators. In this study, in the 2000-2018 period, thenumber of immigrators who were examined using time series analysis of therelationship between unemployment and living in Turkey. As a result of theanalysis of the time series formed from the data of Turkish Statistical Instution(TUIK) and General Directorate of Migration Management, series long-termcausal relationship has been identified between the number of immigrators inTurkey it was found to be a cause of unemployment.

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